2012 season

BCS era

Latest update: 2026-10-18 5:01 am ET | Week 15 status: COMPLETE

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2012 Harbin Rankings

FBS (national)All teams Postseason scores What if? (weighting sliders)

2012 season summary

Harbin's top two are Notre Dame and Florida; the title game was Alabama vs Notre Dame, so Harbin got 1 of 2 right; across the whole BCS lineup (title game and four bowls), run by that year's rules, Harbin matches 9 of 10 teams.

Among games between teams the BCS standings ranked, Harbin put the loser above the winner in 8 of 33 (the BCS standings: 5), and picked 3 of 9 postseason games (the BCS standings: 5), behind the BCS standings overall.

It flags 1 team that looks out of place: Tulsa (odd-in).

Ineligible for the postseason, so ranked but left out of Harbin's field: Ohio State (#3) and Penn State (#22).

Measure	Harbin	BCS standings (2012-12-04)
Results contradicted (fewer is better)	8 of 33 (24%)	5 of 33 (15%)
Postseason picks right	3 of 9 (33%)	5 of 9 (56%)
Playoff field matched	9 of 10 (90%)	n/a

Field changes

Title game: Harbin Notre Dame vs Florida; real Notre Dame vs Alabama.

Teams Harbin would add to, or drop from, the real field (the title game and the four BCS bowls).

Harbin adds

Team	Harbin	BCS standings	Why
Oklahoma	#10	#11	Against N Illinois (the team it displaces), Oklahoma beat no team with 9+ wins, so its beaten opponents earned 312.5 Level 1 points in all (272.5 for N Illinois's), a Level 2 term of 21.9 to 17.5; N Illinois beat 7 teams with losing records (Akron 1-11, Kansas 1-11, UMass 1-11, Army 2-9 and 3 more) and FCS UT Martin, which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 2.68 of the 4.81-point rating gap (56%). Harbin ranks Oklahoma #10 and it has 10 wins, so it is eligible (9+ wins, top 14) and the best available at-large pick; the real Orange Bowl had N Illinois (Harbin #20) instead. The teams N Illinois played had 156 games on their schedules in all, against 143 for Oklahoma's, and Level 2 is divided by that total, so each team N Illinois beat adds less. This accounts for 1.70 of the 4.81-point rating gap (35%).

Harbin drops

Team	Harbin	BCS standings	Why
N Illinois	#20	#15	Against Oklahoma (the team that takes its place), N Illinois's beaten opponents earned 272.5 Level 1 points in all (312.5 for Oklahoma's), a Level 2 term of 17.5 to 21.9. N Illinois beat 7 teams with losing records (Akron 1-11, Kansas 1-11, UMass 1-11, Army 2-9 and 3 more) and FCS UT Martin, which add little to Level 2; Oklahoma beat no team with 9+ wins. This accounts for 2.68 of the 4.81-point rating gap (56%). The real Orange Bowl took N Illinois (non-AQ automatic (#15 MAC, ranked above two AQ champions)). Harbin ranks N Illinois #20, outside the top 14 that at-large picks come from. Harbin's lineup has Oklahoma (#10) there instead. The teams N Illinois played had 156 games on their schedules in all, against 143 for Oklahoma's, and Level 2 is divided by that total, so each team N Illinois beat adds less. This accounts for 1.70 of the 4.81-point rating gap (35%).

Title game

Teams Harbin would put into, or take out of, the national-title game (those not already listed above).

Harbin puts in the title game

Team	Harbin	BCS standings	Why
Florida	#2	#3	Against Alabama (the team it displaces), Florida beat 4 teams with 9+ wins (Florida St 11-2, LSU 10-2, South Carolina 10-2 and Texas A&M 10-2), so its beaten opponents earned 439.0 Level 1 points in all (385.5 for Alabama's), a Level 2 term of 30.3 to 24.7; Alabama beat 5 teams with losing records (Auburn 3-9, FAU 3-9, Arkansas 4-8, Missouri 5-7 and 1 more) and FCS W Carolina, which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 3.56 of the 5.48-point rating gap (65%). The teams Alabama played had 156 games on their schedules in all, against 145 for Florida's, and Level 2 is divided by that total, so each team Alabama beat adds less. This accounts for 2.00 of the 5.48-point rating gap (37%). Florida beat 4 Harbin top-25 teams (South Carolina #8, Texas A&M #9, LSU #11 and Florida St #14); Alabama, the team it displaces, has 2 top-25 wins and 2 more in the top 50.

Harbin takes out of the title game

Team	Harbin	BCS standings	Why
Alabama	#6	#2	Against Florida (the team that takes its place), Alabama's beaten opponents earned 385.5 Level 1 points in all (439.0 for Florida's), a Level 2 term of 24.7 to 30.3. Alabama beat 5 teams with losing records (Auburn 3-9, FAU 3-9, Arkansas 4-8, Missouri 5-7 and 1 more) and FCS W Carolina, which add little to Level 2; Florida beat 4 teams with 9+ wins (Florida St 11-2, LSU 10-2, South Carolina 10-2 and Texas A&M 10-2). This accounts for 3.56 of the 5.48-point rating gap (65%). The teams Alabama played had 156 games on their schedules in all, against 145 for Florida's, and Level 2 is divided by that total, so each team Alabama beat adds less. This accounts for 2.00 of the 5.48-point rating gap (37%).

Not eligible for the postseason

These teams rank in Harbin's top 25 but could not play in the postseason. They stay in the rankings, shaded pink, and are skipped for every field and cut line.

Team	Harbin	W-L	Why
Ohio State	#3	12-0	NCAA sanctions: NCAA postseason ban for 2012 (Tressel/tattoo case); 12-0 but ineligible for the Big Ten title game and bowls.
Penn State	#22	8-4	NCAA sanctions: NCAA bowl ban for 2012 and 2013 in the Sandusky case (8-4).

Outliers

Team	Kind	Harbin	BCS standings	AP	FPI	W-L	Why
Tulsa	Harbin has in, reference does not	#25	-	-	#57	10-3	Tulsa's loss to 4-8 Arkansas counts no more in Harbin than a loss to a top-10 team; it is unranked in the BCS standings.

Biggest disagreements

Team	Harbin	BCS standings	W-L	Why
Michigan	#32	#18	8-4	Against Louisville (Harbin #18, the spot the BCS standings gives Michigan), Michigan's beaten opponents earned 216.5 Level 1 points in all (249.0 for Louisville's), a Level 2 term of 14.8 to 17.5. Michigan beat 3 teams with losing records (UMass 1-11, Illinois 2-10 and Iowa 4-8), which add little to Level 2; Louisville beat 2 teams with 9+ wins (Cincinnati 9-3 and Rutgers 9-3). This accounts for 2.26 of the 3.50-point rating gap (65%). Michigan lost 4 of its 12 games (Alabama 12-1, Notre Dame 12-0, Nebraska 10-3 and Ohio State 12-0), and every loss is a game worth 0 points in the Level 1 average: 8 of its 12 games earn points, against 10 of 12 for Louisville (lost to Syracuse 7-5 and UConn 5-7). This accounts for 1.00 of the 3.50-point rating gap (29%).
Boise St	#31	#19	10-2	Against Kent State (Harbin #19, the spot the BCS standings gives Boise St), Boise St's beaten opponents earned 215.5 Level 1 points in all (278.5 for Kent State's), a Level 2 term of 14.8 to 19.5. Boise St beat 7 teams with losing records (Southern Miss 0-12, UNLV 2-11, Hawai'i 3-9, Colorado St 4-8 and 3 more), which add little to Level 2; Kent State beat 2 teams with 9+ wins (Ball State 9-3 and Rutgers 9-3). This accounts for 4.36 points, more than the whole 3.12-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way. Boise St has no win over a Harbin top-25 team (best win: Fresno St #42).
Utah State	#29	#22	10-2	Against Penn State (Harbin #22, the spot the BCS standings gives Utah State), Utah State's beaten opponents earned 223.5 Level 1 points in all (238.5 for Penn State's), a Level 2 term of 15.4 to 16.4. Utah State beat 6 teams with losing records (Idaho 1-11, New Mexico St 1-11, UNLV 2-11, Colorado St 4-8 and 2 more) and FCS Southern Utah, which add little to Level 2; Penn State beat 1 team with 9+ wins (Northwestern 9-3). This accounts for 1.03 of the 1.12-point rating gap (93%). Utah State's wins earn less: 4.95 Level 1 points per win, against 6.31 for Penn State. 9 of its 10 wins came over teams worth less than a top-tier win (6.5): 8 over other FBS teams (5.0 each: Colorado St, UNLV, San José St, New Mexico St and 4 more) and FCS Southern Utah (3.0); Penn State had 1 (1 over other FBS teams (5.0 each: Navy)). This accounts for 1.02 of the 1.12-point rating gap (91%).
Georgia	#13	#7	11-2	Against Oregon (Harbin #7, the spot the BCS standings gives Georgia), Georgia's beaten opponents earned 309.5 Level 1 points in all (352.5 for Oregon's), a Level 2 term of 21.5 to 24.5. Georgia beat 7 teams with losing records (Kentucky 2-10, Auburn 3-9, FAU 3-9, Buffalo 4-8 and 3 more) and FCS GA Southern, which add little to Level 2; Oregon beat 3 teams with 9+ wins (Arkansas St 9-3, Fresno St 9-3 and Oregon St 9-3). This accounts for 2.99 of the 5.18-point rating gap (58%). Georgia lost the SEC title game to Alabama (12-1): it was its 13th game and earned 0 points, so its Level 1 average fell from 5.42 to 5.00 and Alabama's 13 games went into its divisor with nothing earned; without that game Georgia would rate 26.91 instead of 24.71. This accounts for 2.20 of the 5.18-point rating gap (42%).
Kent State	#19	#25	11-2	Against Tulsa (Harbin #25, the spot the BCS standings gives Kent State), Kent State beat 2 teams with 9+ wins (Ball State 9-3 and Rutgers 9-3), so its beaten opponents earned 278.5 Level 1 points in all (253.5 for Tulsa's), a Level 2 term of 19.5 to 16.1; Tulsa beat 5 teams with losing records (Tulane 2-10, UAB 3-9, UTEP 3-9, Houston 5-7 and 1 more) and FCS Nicholls, which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 1.67 of the 2.21-point rating gap (76%). The teams Tulsa played had 157 games on their schedules in all, against 143 for Kent State's, and Level 2 is divided by that total, so each team Tulsa beat adds less. This accounts for 1.66 of the 2.21-point rating gap (75%). Kent State lost 1 of its 12 games (Kentucky 2-10), against 3 of 13 for Tulsa (lost to Iowa State 6-6, Arkansas 4-8 and SMU 6-6), and every loss is a game worth 0 points in the Level 1 average. This accounts for 0.72 of the 2.21-point rating gap (33%).
Northwestern	#26	#20	9-3	Against N Illinois (Harbin #20, the spot the BCS standings gives Northwestern), Northwestern's beaten opponents earned 218.5 Level 1 points in all (272.5 for N Illinois's), a Level 2 term of 15.2 to 17.5. Northwestern beat 4 teams with losing records (Boston College 2-10, Illinois 2-10, Indiana 4-8 and Iowa 4-8) and FCS South Dakota, which add little to Level 2; N Illinois beat 3 teams with 9+ wins (Kent State 11-2, Ball State 9-3 and Toledo 9-3). This accounts for 3.61 points, more than the whole 2.29-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way. Northwestern lost 3 of its 12 games (Penn State 8-4, Nebraska 10-3 and Michigan 8-4), and every loss is a game worth 0 points in the Level 1 average: 9 of its 12 games earn points, against 12 of 13 for N Illinois (lost to Iowa 4-8). This accounts for 0.96 of the 2.29-point rating gap (42%).

Compared with BCS standings of 2012-12-04. Written 2026-10-17 from games through 2012-12-04.