| Oregon | #5 | #25 | 4-2 | - Against Miami OH (Harbin #25, the spot the committee gives Oregon), Oregon beat no team with 9+ wins, so its beaten opponents earned 84.5 Level 1 points in all (35.0 for Miami OH's), a Level 2 term of 24.9 to 18.4; Miami OH beat 1 team with a losing record (Akron 1-5), which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 20.31 points, more than the whole 7.43-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
- Oregon's loss to 2-5 Oregon St counts no more in Harbin than a loss to a top-10 team; it is #25 in the committee ranking.
- Oregon beat 2 Harbin top-25 teams (USC #19 and Stanford #24).
|
| Florida | #26 | #7 | 8-3 | - Against Coastal (Harbin #7, the spot the committee gives Florida), Florida's beaten opponents earned 182.0 Level 1 points in all (263.0 for Coastal's), a Level 2 term of 19.0 to 23.7. Florida beat 6 teams with losing records (Vanderbilt 0-9, South Carolina 2-8, Arkansas 3-7, Tennessee 3-7 and 2 more), which add little to Level 2; Coastal beat 2 teams with 9+ wins (BYU 10-1 and Louisiana 9-1). This accounts for 7.87 points, more than the whole 6.91-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
- Florida lost the SEC title game to Alabama (11-0): it was its 11th game and earned 0 points, so its Level 1 average fell from 5.20 to 4.73 and Alabama's 11 games went into its divisor with nothing earned; without that game Florida would rate 24.16 instead of 21.74. This accounts for 2.42 of the 6.91-point rating gap (35%).
- Florida lost 2 of its 10 games (Texas A&M 8-1 and LSU 5-5), and every loss is a game worth 0 points in the Level 1 average: 8 of its 10 games earn points, against 11 of 11 for Coastal (unbeaten). This accounts for 1.15 of the 6.91-point rating gap (17%).
|
| Ball State | #9 | - | 6-1 | - Against Florida (Harbin #26, the first spot outside the committee's top 25), The teams Florida played had 96 games on their schedules in all, against 39 for Ball State's, and Level 2 is divided by that total, so each team Florida beat adds less. This accounts for 20.71 points, more than the whole 5.63-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
- Florida lost the SEC title game to Alabama (11-0): it was its 11th game and earned 0 points, so its Level 1 average fell from 5.20 to 4.73 and Alabama's 11 games went into its divisor with nothing earned; without that game Florida would rate 24.16 instead of 21.74. This accounts for 2.42 of the 5.63-point rating gap (43%).
- Ball State's Level 2 term (23.1) ranks #8 in FBS: Harbin rewards beating teams that won a lot.
|
| San José St | #6 | #22 | 7-0 | - Against BYU (Harbin #22, the spot the committee gives San José St), The teams BYU played had 101 games on their schedules in all, against 50 for San José St's, and Level 2 is divided by that total, so each team BYU beat adds less. This accounts for 15.50 points, more than the whole 6.12-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
- San José St's Level 2 term (24.0) ranks #6 in FBS: Harbin rewards beating teams that won a lot.
- San José St played only 7 games (the typical FBS team played 9), so a small sample swings its averages.
|
| Georgia | #21 | #9 | 7-2 | - Against Ball State (Harbin #9, the spot the committee gives Georgia), The teams Georgia played had 92 games on their schedules in all, against 39 for Ball State's, and Level 2 is divided by that total, so each team Georgia beat adds less. This accounts for 19.13 points, more than the whole 3.94-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
- Georgia has no win over a Harbin top-25 team (best win: Auburn #34).
|
| Colorado | #15 | - | 4-1 | - Against Florida (Harbin #26, the first spot outside the committee's top 25), The teams Florida played had 96 games on their schedules in all, against 31 for Colorado's, and Level 2 is divided by that total, so each team Florida beat adds less. This accounts for 27.03 points, more than the whole 4.29-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
- Florida lost the SEC title game to Alabama (11-0): it was its 11th game and earned 0 points, so its Level 1 average fell from 5.20 to 4.73 and Alabama's 11 games went into its divisor with nothing earned; without that game Florida would rate 24.16 instead of 21.74. This accounts for 2.42 of the 4.29-point rating gap (56%).
- Colorado's Level 2 term (21.1) ranks #15 in FBS: Harbin rewards beating teams that won a lot.
|
| Texas | #29 | #20 | 6-3 | - Against Iowa (Harbin #20, the spot the committee gives Texas), The teams Texas played had 87 games on their schedules in all, against 59 for Iowa's, and Level 2 is divided by that total, so each team Texas beat adds less. This accounts for 6.98 points, more than the whole 2.71-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
- Texas lost 3 of its 9 games (TCU 6-4, Oklahoma 8-2 and Iowa State 8-3), and every loss is a game worth 0 points in the Level 1 average: 6 of its 9 games earn points, against 6 of 8 for Iowa (lost to Purdue 2-4 and Northwestern 6-2). This accounts for 0.53 of the 2.71-point rating gap (20%).
|
| Texas A&M | #12 | #5 | 8-1 | - Against Oregon (Harbin #5, the spot the committee gives Texas A&M), The teams Texas A&M played had 91 games on their schedules in all, against 34 for Oregon's, and Level 2 is divided by that total, so each team Texas A&M beat adds less. This accounts for 25.75 points, more than the whole 1.98-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
|
| Iowa State | #17 | #10 | 8-3 | - Against Oklahoma (Harbin #10, the spot the committee gives Iowa State), Iowa State lost the Big 12 title game to Oklahoma (8-2): it was its 11th game and earned 0 points, so its Level 1 average fell from 5.20 to 4.73 and Oklahoma's 10 games went into its divisor with nothing earned; without that game Iowa State would rate 27.49 instead of 24.92. This accounts for 2.58 points, more than the whole 2.38-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
- The teams Iowa State played had 96 games on their schedules in all, against 92 for Oklahoma's, and Level 2 is divided by that total, so each team Iowa State beat adds less. This accounts for 0.95 of the 2.38-point rating gap (40%).
|
| Tulsa | #31 | #24 | 6-2 | - Against Stanford (Harbin #24, the spot the committee gives Tulsa), The teams Tulsa played had 68 games on their schedules in all, against 33 for Stanford's, and Level 2 is divided by that total, so each team Tulsa beat adds less. This accounts for 14.51 points, more than the whole 1.75-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
- Tulsa lost the AAC title game to Cincinnati (9-0): it was its 8th game and earned 0 points, so its Level 1 average fell from 4.29 to 3.75 and Cincinnati's 9 games went into its divisor with nothing earned; without that game Tulsa would rate 23.04 instead of 20.31. This accounts for 2.73 points, more than the whole 1.75-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
- Tulsa's wins earn less: 5.00 Level 1 points per win, against 6.50 for Stanford. 6 of its 6 wins came over teams worth less than a top-tier win (6.5): 6 over other FBS teams (5.0 each: UCF, South Florida, East Carolina, SMU and 2 more); Stanford had 0. This accounts for 1.14 of the 1.75-point rating gap (65%).
|
| BYU | #22 | #16 | 10-1 | - Against Louisiana (Harbin #16, the spot the committee gives BYU), BYU's beaten opponents earned 187.0 Level 1 points in all (225.5 for Louisiana's), a Level 2 term of 18.5 to 21.1. BYU beat 5 teams with losing records (Texas St 2-10, Houston 3-4, Navy 3-7, Troy 5-6 and 1 more) and FCS North Alabama, which add little to Level 2; Louisiana beat no team with 9+ wins. This accounts for 3.71 points, more than the whole 2.85-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
- BYU has no win over a Harbin top-25 team (best win: Boise St #40).
|