2021 season

4-team CFP era

Latest update: 2026-10-18 5:01 am ET  |  Week 15 status: COMPLETE

2021 Harbin Rankings

Power 4 conferences

Other FBS conferences

Independents

2021 season summary

Harbin's top four matches the real one on 3 of 4 spots: it adds Baylor and leaves out Cincinnati.

Among games between teams the committee ranked, Harbin put the loser above the winner in 9 of 31 (the committee: 7), and picked 4 of 9 postseason games (the committee: 4), behind the committee overall.

It flags no team that looks out of place.

MeasureHarbinCFP committee (2021-12-05)
Results contradicted (fewer is better)9 of 31 (29%)7 of 31 (23%)
Postseason picks right4 of 9 (44%)4 of 9 (44%)
Playoff field matched3 of 4 (75%)n/a

Field changes

Teams Harbin would add to, or drop from, the real field.

Harbin adds

TeamHarbinCFP committeeWhy
Baylor#4#7
  • Against Cincinnati (the team it displaces), Baylor beat 3 teams with 9+ wins (Oklahoma St 11-2, BYU 10-2 and Oklahoma 10-2), so its beaten opponents earned 396.0 Level 1 points in all (360.0 for Cincinnati's), a Level 2 term of 25.4 to 23.1; Cincinnati beat 5 teams with losing records (Indiana 2-10, South Florida 2-10, Tulane 2-10, Navy 3-8 and 1 more) and FCS Murray St, which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 2.31 points, more than the whole 2.23-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
  • Baylor's wins earn more: 5.91 Level 1 points per win, against 5.08 for Cincinnati. 8 of its 11 wins came over top-tier teams (6.5 each: Oklahoma St #5, Oklahoma #20, Iowa State #39, Kansas St #45 and 4 more); Cincinnati had 2 of 13, plus 10 over other FBS teams (5.0 each: Miami OH, Temple, UCF, Navy and 6 more) and FCS Murray St (3.0). This accounts for 0.77 of the 2.23-point rating gap (34%).
  • Baylor beat 3 Harbin top-25 teams (Oklahoma St #5, BYU #14 and Oklahoma #20) and 2 more in the top 50 (Iowa State #39 and Kansas St #45); Cincinnati, the team it displaces, has 1 top-25 win and 1 more in the top 50.

Harbin drops

TeamHarbinCFP committeeWhy
Cincinnati#7#4
  • Against Baylor (the team that takes its place), Cincinnati's beaten opponents earned 360.0 Level 1 points in all (396.0 for Baylor's), a Level 2 term of 23.1 to 25.4. Cincinnati beat 5 teams with losing records (Indiana 2-10, South Florida 2-10, Tulane 2-10, Navy 3-8 and 1 more) and FCS Murray St, which add little to Level 2; Baylor beat 3 teams with 9+ wins (Oklahoma St 11-2, BYU 10-2 and Oklahoma 10-2). This accounts for 2.31 points, more than the whole 2.23-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
  • Cincinnati's wins earn less: 5.08 Level 1 points per win, against 5.91 for Baylor. 11 of its 13 wins came over teams worth less than a top-tier win (6.5): 10 over other FBS teams (5.0 each: Miami OH, Temple, UCF, Navy and 6 more) and FCS Murray St (3.0); Baylor had 3 (2 over other FBS teams (5.0 each: Texas St and BYU) and FCS Texas Southern (3.0)). This accounts for 0.77 of the 2.23-point rating gap (34%).

Biggest disagreements

TeamHarbinCFP committeeW-LWhy
Houston#38#2011-2
  • Against Oklahoma (Harbin #20, the spot the committee gives Houston), Houston's beaten opponents earned 209.0 Level 1 points in all (251.5 for Oklahoma's), a Level 2 term of 14.6 to 17.3. Houston beat 6 teams with losing records (UConn 1-11, South Florida 2-10, Tulane 2-10, Navy 3-8 and 2 more) and FCS Grambling, which add little to Level 2; Oklahoma beat no team with 9+ wins. This accounts for 2.95 of the 4.87-point rating gap (61%).
  • Houston lost the AAC title game to Cincinnati (13-0): it was its 13th game and earned 0 points, so its Level 1 average fell from 4.42 to 4.08 and Cincinnati's 13 games went into its divisor with nothing earned; without that game Houston would rate 19.03 instead of 17.47. This accounts for 1.56 of the 4.87-point rating gap (32%).
  • Houston's wins earn less: 4.82 Level 1 points per win, against 6.00 for Oklahoma. 11 of its 11 wins came over teams worth less than a top-tier win (6.5): 10 over other FBS teams (5.0 each: Rice, Navy, Tulsa, Tulane and 6 more) and FCS Grambling (3.0); Oklahoma had 2 (1 over other FBS teams (5.0 each: Tulane) and FCS W Carolina (3.0)). This accounts for 1.03 of the 4.87-point rating gap (21%).
Arkansas#33#218-4
  • Against San Diego St (Harbin #21, the spot the committee gives Arkansas), Arkansas's beaten opponents earned 216.0 Level 1 points in all (279.5 for San Diego St's), a Level 2 term of 14.9 to 19.3. Arkansas beat 3 teams with losing records (GA Southern 3-9, Rice 4-8 and Texas 5-7) and FCS AR-Pine Bluff, which add little to Level 2; San Diego St beat 2 teams with 9+ wins (Utah 10-3 and Air Force 9-3). This accounts for 4.38 points, more than the whole 3.31-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
  • Arkansas lost 4 of its 12 games (Georgia 12-1, Ole Miss 10-2, Auburn 6-6 and Alabama 12-1), and every loss is a game worth 0 points in the Level 1 average: 8 of its 12 games earn points, against 11 of 12 for San Diego St (lost to Fresno St 9-3). This accounts for 1.35 of the 3.31-point rating gap (41%).
UTSA#17-12-1
  • Against Miami (Harbin #26, the first spot outside the committee's top 25), UTSA beat no team with 9+ wins, so its beaten opponents earned 292.5 Level 1 points in all (244.5 for Miami's), a Level 2 term of 18.8 to 16.7; Miami beat 2 teams with losing records (Duke 3-9 and Georgia Tech 3-9) and FCS C Connecticut, which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 3.18 of the 3.21-point rating gap (99%).
  • UTSA lost 1 of its 13 games (North Texas 6-6), against 5 of 12 for Miami (lost to Alabama 12-1, Michigan St 10-2, Virginia 6-6, North Carolina 6-6 and 1 more), and every loss is a game worth 0 points in the Level 1 average. This accounts for 1.83 of the 3.21-point rating gap (57%).
Wisconsin#18-8-4
  • Against Miami (Harbin #26, the first spot outside the committee's top 25), Wisconsin beat 1 team with 9+ wins (Iowa 10-3), so its beaten opponents earned 271.0 Level 1 points in all (244.5 for Miami's), a Level 2 term of 18.6 to 16.7; Miami beat 2 teams with losing records (Duke 3-9 and Georgia Tech 3-9) and FCS C Connecticut, which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 1.82 of the 2.52-point rating gap (72%).
  • Wisconsin lost 4 of its 12 games (Penn State 7-5, Notre Dame 11-1, Michigan 12-1 and Minnesota 8-4), against 5 of 12 for Miami (lost to Alabama 12-1, Michigan St 10-2, Virginia 6-6, North Carolina 6-6 and 1 more), and every loss is a game worth 0 points in the Level 1 average. This accounts for 0.50 of the 2.52-point rating gap (20%).
  • Wisconsin beat 2 Harbin top-25 teams (Iowa #19 and Purdue #25) and 1 more in the top 50 (Army #44).
Louisiana#16#2312-1
  • Against Clemson (Harbin #23, the spot the committee gives Louisiana), Louisiana beat 1 team with 9+ wins (App State 10-3), so its beaten opponents earned 302.0 Level 1 points in all (251.5 for Clemson's), a Level 2 term of 19.2 to 17.2; Clemson beat 4 teams with losing records (UConn 1-11, Georgia Tech 3-9, Florida St 5-7 and Syracuse 5-7) and FCS SC State, which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 3.34 points, more than the whole 2.01-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
  • Louisiana lost 1 of its 13 games (Texas 5-7), against 3 of 12 for Clemson (lost to Georgia 12-1, NC State 9-3 and Pitt 11-2), and every loss is a game worth 0 points in the Level 1 average. This accounts for 0.93 of the 2.01-point rating gap (46%).
  • Louisiana's loss to 5-7 Texas counts no more in Harbin than a loss to a top-10 team; it is #23 in the committee ranking.
Kentucky#29#229-3
  • Against NC State (Harbin #22, the spot the committee gives Kentucky), Kentucky's beaten opponents earned 218.0 Level 1 points in all (250.0 for NC State's), a Level 2 term of 15.1 to 17.4. Kentucky beat 3 teams with losing records (New Mexico St 2-10, Vanderbilt 2-10 and UL Monroe 4-8) and FCS Chattanooga, which add little to Level 2; NC State beat 1 team with 9+ wins (Clemson 9-3). This accounts for 2.22 points, more than the whole 2.22-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
  • Kentucky has no win over a Harbin top-25 team (best win: LSU #49).

Compared with CFP committee of 2021-12-05. Written 2026-10-17 from games through 2021-12-05.