2019 season

4-team CFP era

Latest update: 2026-10-18 5:01 am ET  |  Week 16 status: COMPLETE

2019 Harbin Rankings

Power 4 conferences

Other FBS conferences

Independents

2019 season summary

Harbin's top four matches the real one exactly.

Among games between teams the committee ranked, Harbin put the loser above the winner in 5 of 38 (the committee: 3), and picked 7 of 10 postseason games (the committee: 8), behind the committee overall.

It flags 1 team that looks out of place: Arizona St (odd-in).

MeasureHarbinCFP committee (2019-12-08)
Results contradicted (fewer is better)5 of 38 (13%)3 of 38 (8%)
Postseason picks right7 of 10 (70%)8 of 10 (80%)
Playoff field matched4 of 4 (100%)n/a

Outliers

TeamKindHarbinCFP committeeAPFPIW-LWhy
Arizona StHarbin has in, reference does not#25--#437-5
  • Against SMU (Harbin #26, the first spot outside the committee's top 25), Arizona St beat 1 team with 9+ wins (Oregon 11-2), so its beaten opponents earned 251.5 Level 1 points in all (234.0 for SMU's), a Level 2 term of 17.2 to 16.1; SMU beat 7 teams with losing records (Texas St 3-9, East Carolina 4-8, Houston 4-8, North Texas 4-8 and 3 more), which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 1.20 points, more than the whole 0.17-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
  • Arizona St's wins earn more: 5.79 Level 1 points per win, against 5.15 for SMU. 5 of its 7 wins came over top-tier teams (6.5 each: Oregon #6, California #48, Michigan St #68, Washington St #83 and 1 more); SMU had 1 of 10, plus 9 over other FBS teams (5.0 each: Arkansas St, North Texas, Texas St, South Florida and 5 more). This accounts for 0.45 points, more than the whole 0.17-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
  • Arizona St's losses to 4-8 UCLA, 5-7 Colorado and 5-7 Oregon St count no more in Harbin than a loss to a top-10 team; it is unranked in the committee ranking.

Biggest disagreements

TeamHarbinCFP committeeW-LWhy
Boise St#10#1912-1
  • Against Iowa (Harbin #19, the spot the committee gives Boise St), Boise St beat 2 teams with 9+ wins (Air Force 10-2 and Hawai'i 9-5), so its beaten opponents earned 363.0 Level 1 points in all (273.0 for Iowa's), a Level 2 term of 22.7 to 18.7; Iowa beat 5 teams with losing records (Rutgers 2-10, Northwestern 3-9, MTSU 4-8, Purdue 4-8 and 1 more), which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 5.89 points, more than the whole 3.94-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
  • Boise St lost 1 of its 13 games (BYU 7-5), against 3 of 12 for Iowa (lost to Michigan 9-3, Penn State 10-2 and Wisconsin 10-3), and every loss is a game worth 0 points in the Level 1 average. This accounts for 0.96 of the 3.94-point rating gap (24%).
  • Boise St beat 1 Harbin top-25 team (Air Force #23) and 3 more in the top 50 (Marshall #38, Hawai'i #43 and Hawai'i #43).
Baylor#16#711-2
  • Against Notre Dame (Harbin #7, the spot the committee gives Baylor), Baylor lost the Big 12 title game to Oklahoma (12-1): it was its 13th game and earned 0 points, so its Level 1 average fell from 5.42 to 5.00 and Oklahoma's 13 games went into its divisor with nothing earned; without that game Baylor would rate 27.07 instead of 24.87. This accounts for 2.20 of the 3.42-point rating gap (64%).
  • Baylor's beaten opponents earned 314.0 Level 1 points in all (339.5 for Notre Dame's), a Level 2 term of 21.7 to 23.3. Baylor beat 6 teams with losing records (Kansas 3-9, Rice 3-9, Texas Tech 4-8, UTSA 4-8 and 2 more) and FCS SF Austin, which add little to Level 2; Notre Dame beat 2 teams with 9+ wins (Navy 9-2 and Virginia 9-4). This accounts for 1.75 of the 3.42-point rating gap (51%).
Notre Dame#7#1510-2
  • Against Michigan (Harbin #15, the spot the committee gives Notre Dame), Notre Dame beat 2 teams with 9+ wins (Navy 9-2 and Virginia 9-4), so its beaten opponents earned 339.5 Level 1 points in all (298.5 for Michigan's), a Level 2 term of 23.3 to 20.3; Michigan beat 4 teams with losing records (Rutgers 2-10, Maryland 3-9, MTSU 4-8 and Army 5-7), which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 2.80 of the 3.36-point rating gap (83%).
  • Notre Dame lost 2 of its 12 games (Georgia 11-2 and Michigan 9-3), against 3 of 12 for Michigan (lost to Wisconsin 10-3, Penn State 10-2 and Ohio State 13-0), and every loss is a game worth 0 points in the Level 1 average. This accounts for 0.51 of the 3.36-point rating gap (15%).
  • Notre Dame beat 1 Harbin top-25 team (USC #20) and 4 more in the top 50 (Louisville #27, Virginia #29, Navy #30 and Virginia Tech #40).
Alabama#21#1310-2
  • Against Utah (Harbin #13, the spot the committee gives Alabama), Alabama's beaten opponents earned 239.5 Level 1 points in all (327.5 for Utah's), a Level 2 term of 16.5 to 22.7. Alabama beat 5 teams with losing records (Arkansas 2-10, New Mexico St 2-10, Ole Miss 4-8, South Carolina 4-8 and 1 more) and FCS W Carolina, which add little to Level 2; Utah beat no team with 9+ wins. This accounts for 6.09 points, more than the whole 4.47-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
  • Alabama has no win over a Harbin top-25 team (best win: Tennessee #42).
Navy#30#239-2
  • Against Air Force (Harbin #23, the spot the committee gives Navy), Navy's beaten opponents earned 230.0 Level 1 points in all (246.0 for Air Force's), a Level 2 term of 15.8 to 16.6. Navy beat 5 teams with losing records (UConn 2-10, East Carolina 4-8, Houston 4-8, South Florida 4-8 and 1 more) and FCS Holy Cross, which add little to Level 2; Air Force beat 1 team with 9+ wins (Hawai'i 9-5). This accounts for 1.09 points, more than the whole 1.08-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
Memphis#11#1712-1
  • Against Auburn (Harbin #17, the spot the committee gives Memphis), Memphis beat 3 teams with 9+ wins (Cincinnati 10-3, SMU 10-2 and Navy 9-2), so its beaten opponents earned 354.5 Level 1 points in all (296.5 for Auburn's), a Level 2 term of 22.3 to 20.2; Auburn beat 2 teams with losing records (Arkansas 2-10 and Ole Miss 4-8) and FCS Samford, which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 3.80 points, more than the whole 2.37-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
  • Memphis lost 1 of its 13 games (Temple 8-4), against 3 of 12 for Auburn (lost to Florida 10-2, LSU 13-0 and Georgia 11-2), and every loss is a game worth 0 points in the Level 1 average. This accounts for 0.93 of the 2.37-point rating gap (39%).
  • Memphis beat 2 Harbin top-25 teams (Cincinnati #24 and Cincinnati #24) and 2 more in the top 50 (SMU #26 and Navy #30).
App State#14#2012-1
  • Against USC (Harbin #20, the spot the committee gives App State), App State beat 1 team with 9+ wins (Louisiana 10-3), so its beaten opponents earned 320.5 Level 1 points in all (269.5 for USC's), a Level 2 term of 20.3 to 18.5; USC beat 5 teams with losing records (Arizona 4-8, Fresno St 4-8, Stanford 4-8, UCLA 4-8 and 1 more), which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 3.36 points, more than the whole 2.31-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
  • App State lost 1 of its 13 games (GA Southern 7-5), against 4 of 12 for USC (lost to BYU 7-5, Washington 7-5, Notre Dame 10-2 and Oregon 11-2), and every loss is a game worth 0 points in the Level 1 average. This accounts for 1.46 of the 2.31-point rating gap (63%).

Compared with CFP committee of 2019-12-08. Written 2026-10-17 from games through 2019-12-08.