2004 season

BCS era

Latest update: 2026-10-18 5:01 am ET | Week 16 status: COMPLETE

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2004 Harbin Rankings

FBS (national)All teams Postseason scores What if? (weighting sliders)

2004 season summary

Harbin's top two are Oklahoma and USC; the title game was Oklahoma vs USC, so Harbin got 2 of 2 right; across the whole BCS lineup (title game and four bowls), run by that year's rules, Harbin matches 7 of 8 teams.

Among games between teams the BCS standings ranked, Harbin put the loser above the winner in 8 of 37 (the BCS standings: 6), and picked 7 of 11 postseason games (the BCS standings: 7), behind the BCS standings overall.

It flags 2 teams that look out of place: Notre Dame (odd-in) and Syracuse (odd-in).

Measure	Harbin	BCS standings (2004-12-05)
Results contradicted (fewer is better)	8 of 37 (22%)	6 of 37 (16%)
Postseason picks right	7 of 11 (64%)	7 of 11 (64%)
Playoff field matched	7 of 8 (88%)	n/a

Field changes

Title game: Harbin Oklahoma vs USC; real USC vs Oklahoma.

Teams Harbin would add to, or drop from, the real field (the title game and the four BCS bowls).

Harbin adds

Team	Harbin	BCS standings	Why
Iowa	#5	#12	Against Utah (the team it displaces), Iowa beat 1 team with 8+ wins (Wisconsin 9-2), so its beaten opponents earned 300.0 Level 1 points in all (272.0 for Utah's), a Level 2 term of 24.6 to 22.5; Utah beat 7 teams with losing records (UNLV 2-9, Arizona 3-8, Utah State 3-8, Colorado St 4-7 and 3 more), which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 2.30 points, more than the whole 1.88-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way. Harbin ranks Iowa #5 and it has 9 wins, so it is eligible (9+ wins, top 12) and the best available at-large pick; the real Fiesta Bowl had Utah (Harbin #10) instead. Iowa's wins earn more: 6.33 Level 1 points per win, against 5.41 for Utah. 8 of its 9 wins came over top-tier teams (6.5 each: Wisconsin #18, Ohio State #22, Purdue #28, Minnesota #46 and 4 more); Utah had 3 of 11, plus 8 over other FBS teams (5.0 each: Utah State, Air Force, New Mexico, UNLV and 4 more). This accounts for 0.84 of the 1.88-point rating gap (45%).

Harbin drops

Team	Harbin	BCS standings	Why
Utah	#10	#6	Against Iowa (the team that takes its place), Utah's beaten opponents earned 272.0 Level 1 points in all (300.0 for Iowa's), a Level 2 term of 22.5 to 24.6. Utah beat 7 teams with losing records (UNLV 2-9, Arizona 3-8, Utah State 3-8, Colorado St 4-7 and 3 more), which add little to Level 2; Iowa beat 1 team with 8+ wins (Wisconsin 9-2). This accounts for 2.30 points, more than the whole 1.88-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way. The real Fiesta Bowl took Utah (non-AQ automatic (#6 Mountain West; first non-AQ team ever to a BCS bowl)). Harbin ranks Utah #10 (11 wins), and its at-large berths go to better-ranked eligible teams. Harbin's lineup has Iowa (#5) there instead. Utah's wins earn less: 5.41 Level 1 points per win, against 6.33 for Iowa. 8 of its 11 wins came over teams worth less than a top-tier win (6.5): 8 over other FBS teams (5.0 each: Utah State, Air Force, New Mexico, UNLV and 4 more); Iowa had 1 (1 over other FBS teams (5.0 each: Kent State)). This accounts for 0.84 of the 1.88-point rating gap (45%).

Outliers

Team	Kind	Harbin	BCS standings	AP	FPI	W-L	Why
Notre Dame	Harbin has in, reference does not	#24	-	-	-	6-5	Against Oklahoma St (Harbin #26, the first spot outside the BCS standings's top 25), Notre Dame beat 3 teams with 8+ wins (Michigan 9-2, Navy 9-2 and Tennessee 9-3), so its beaten opponents earned 215.5 Level 1 points in all (191.0 for Oklahoma St's), a Level 2 term of 17.4 to 15.4; Oklahoma St beat 4 teams with losing records (Baylor 3-8, SMU 3-8, Tulsa 4-8 and Missouri 5-6), which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 1.98 points, more than the whole 1.52-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way. Notre Dame's loss to 5-6 BYU counts no more in Harbin than a loss to a top-10 team; it is unranked in the BCS standings. Notre Dame beat 2 Harbin top-25 teams (Michigan #6 and Tennessee #17) and 1 more in the top 50 (Navy #40).
Syracuse	Harbin has in, reference does not	#25	-	-	-	6-5	Against Oklahoma St (Harbin #26, the first spot outside the BCS standings's top 25), Syracuse beat 2 teams with 8+ wins (Boston College 8-3 and Pitt 8-3), so its beaten opponents earned 196.0 Level 1 points in all (191.0 for Oklahoma St's), a Level 2 term of 16.2 to 15.4; Oklahoma St beat 4 teams with losing records (Baylor 3-8, SMU 3-8, Tulsa 4-8 and Missouri 5-6), which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 0.41 points, more than the whole 0.20-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way. The teams Oklahoma St played had 124 games on their schedules in all, against 121 for Syracuse's, and Level 2 is divided by that total, so each team Oklahoma St beat adds less. This accounts for 0.39 points, more than the whole 0.20-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way. Syracuse's loss to 2-9 Temple counts no more in Harbin than a loss to a top-10 team; it is unranked in the BCS standings.

Biggest disagreements

Team	Harbin	BCS standings	W-L	Why
Arizona St	#7	#19	8-3	Against Louisville (Harbin #19, the spot the BCS standings gives Arizona St), Arizona St beat 2 teams with 8+ wins (Iowa 9-2 and UTEP 8-3), so its beaten opponents earned 292.5 Level 1 points in all (220.5 for Louisville's), a Level 2 term of 23.8 to 18.2; Louisville beat 7 teams with losing records (Army 2-9, East Carolina 2-9, Kentucky 2-9, Houston 3-8 and 3 more), which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 5.90 points, more than the whole 5.33-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way. Arizona St's wins earn more: 6.31 Level 1 points per win, against 5.30 for Louisville. 7 of its 8 wins came over top-tier teams (6.5 each: Iowa #5, Northwestern #43, Oregon St #48, UCLA #63 and 3 more); Louisville had 2 of 10, plus 8 over other FBS teams (5.0 each: Army, East Carolina, South Florida, Memphis and 4 more). This accounts for 0.83 of the 5.33-point rating gap (16%). Arizona St's loss to 3-8 Arizona counts no more in Harbin than a loss to a top-10 team; it is #19 in the BCS standings.
Texas Tech	#32	#22	7-4	Against Ohio State (Harbin #22, the spot the BCS standings gives Texas Tech), Texas Tech's beaten opponents earned 171.5 Level 1 points in all (215.0 for Ohio State's), a Level 2 term of 14.1 to 17.5. Texas Tech beat 6 teams with losing records (Baylor 3-8, SMU 3-8, Kansas 4-7, Kansas St 4-7 and 2 more), which add little to Level 2; Ohio State beat 1 team with 8+ wins (Michigan 9-2). This accounts for 3.55 points, more than the whole 3.42-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way. Texas Tech has no win over a Harbin top-25 team (best win: Oklahoma St #26).
Louisville	#19	#10	10-1	Against Utah (Harbin #10, the spot the BCS standings gives Louisville), Louisville's beaten opponents earned 220.5 Level 1 points in all (272.0 for Utah's), a Level 2 term of 18.2 to 22.5. Louisville beat 7 teams with losing records (Army 2-9, East Carolina 2-9, Kentucky 2-9, Houston 3-8 and 3 more), which add little to Level 2; Utah beat no team with 8+ wins. This accounts for 4.26 of the 4.85-point rating gap (88%).
Iowa	#5	#12	9-2	Against Georgia (Harbin #12, the spot the BCS standings gives Iowa), Iowa beat 1 team with 8+ wins (Wisconsin 9-2), so its beaten opponents earned 300.0 Level 1 points in all (275.5 for Georgia's), a Level 2 term of 24.6 to 22.4; Georgia beat 3 teams with losing records (Kentucky 2-9, Vanderbilt 2-9 and Arkansas 5-6) and FCS GA Southern, which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 2.00 of the 2.51-point rating gap (80%). Iowa beat 2 Harbin top-25 teams (Wisconsin #18 and Ohio State #22) and 3 more in the top 50 (Purdue #28, Minnesota #46 and Iowa State #47). Iowa's Level 2 term (24.6) ranks #5 in FBS: Harbin rewards beating teams that won a lot.
Michigan	#6	#13	9-2	Against Virginia Tech (Harbin #13, the spot the BCS standings gives Michigan), The teams Virginia Tech played had 133 games on their schedules in all, against 124 for Michigan's, and Level 2 is divided by that total, so each team Virginia Tech beat adds less. This accounts for 1.58 of the 2.05-point rating gap (77%). Michigan beat 2 teams with 8+ wins (Iowa 9-2 and Miami OH 8-4), so its beaten opponents earned 292.0 Level 1 points in all (286.5 for Virginia Tech's), a Level 2 term of 23.5 to 21.5; Virginia Tech beat 4 teams with losing records (W Michigan 1-10, Duke 2-9, Wake Forest 4-7 and Maryland 5-6) and FCS Florida A&M, which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 0.43 of the 2.05-point rating gap (21%). Michigan beat 1 Harbin top-25 team (Iowa #5) and 3 more in the top 50 (Purdue #28, Northwestern #43 and Minnesota #46).

Compared with BCS standings of 2004-12-05. Written 2026-10-17 from games through 2004-12-05.