2003 season

BCS era

Latest update: 2026-10-18 5:01 am ET  |  Week 16 status: COMPLETE

2003 Harbin Rankings

Power 4 conferences

Other FBS conferences

Independents

2003 season summary

Harbin's top two are Oklahoma and Ohio State; the title game was LSU vs Oklahoma, so Harbin got 1 of 2 right; across the whole BCS lineup (title game and four bowls), run by that year's rules, Harbin matches 8 of 8 teams.

Among games between teams the BCS standings ranked, Harbin put the loser above the winner in 13 of 36 (the BCS standings: 11), and picked 6 of 9 postseason games (the BCS standings: 6), behind the BCS standings overall.

It flags 3 teams that look out of place: Oregon (odd-in), Southern Miss (odd-in) and Clemson (odd-in).

MeasureHarbinBCS standings (2003-12-07)
Results contradicted (fewer is better)13 of 36 (36%)11 of 36 (31%)
Postseason picks right6 of 9 (67%)6 of 9 (67%)
Playoff field matched8 of 8 (100%)n/a

Field changes

Title game: Harbin Oklahoma vs Ohio State; real Oklahoma vs LSU.

Teams Harbin would add to, or drop from, the real field (the title game and the four BCS bowls).

Title game

Teams Harbin would put into, or take out of, the national-title game (those not already listed above).

Harbin puts in the title game

TeamHarbinBCS standingsWhy
Ohio State#2#5
  • Against LSU (the team it displaces), The teams LSU played had 158 games on their schedules in all, against 145 for Ohio State's, and Level 2 is divided by that total, so each team LSU beat adds less. This accounts for 2.22 points, more than the whole 0.79-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
  • Ohio State's wins earn more: 6.20 Level 1 points per win, against 5.96 for LSU. 8 of its 10 wins came over top-tier teams (6.5 each: Iowa #14, Purdue #23, Michigan St #31, NC State #35 and 4 more); LSU had 9 of 12, plus 2 over other FBS teams (5.0 each: UL Monroe and Louisiana Tech) and FCS W Illinois (3.0). This accounts for 0.21 of the 0.79-point rating gap (27%).
  • Ohio State beat 3 Harbin top-25 teams (Iowa #14, Purdue #23 and Bowling Green #24) and 3 more in the top 50 (Michigan St #31, NC State #35 and Washington #44); LSU, the team it displaces, has 2 top-25 wins and 2 more in the top 50.

Harbin takes out of the title game

TeamHarbinBCS standingsWhy
LSU#3#2
  • Against Ohio State (the team that takes its place), The teams LSU played had 158 games on their schedules in all, against 145 for Ohio State's, and Level 2 is divided by that total, so each team LSU beat adds less. This accounts for 2.22 points, more than the whole 0.79-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
  • LSU's wins earn less: 5.96 Level 1 points per win, against 6.20 for Ohio State. 3 of its 12 wins came over teams worth less than a top-tier win (6.5): 2 over other FBS teams (5.0 each: UL Monroe and Louisiana Tech) and FCS W Illinois (3.0); Ohio State had 2 (2 over other FBS teams (5.0 each: San Diego St and Bowling Green)). This accounts for 0.21 of the 0.79-point rating gap (27%).

Outliers

TeamKindHarbinBCS standingsAPFPIW-LWhy
OregonHarbin has in, reference does not#19---8-4
  • Against Ole Miss (Harbin #26, the first spot outside the BCS standings's top 25), Oregon beat 1 team with 8+ wins (Michigan 10-2), so its beaten opponents earned 258.0 Level 1 points in all (234.5 for Ole Miss's), a Level 2 term of 18.0 to 16.1; Ole Miss beat 6 teams with losing records (UL Monroe 1-11, Mississippi St 2-10, Vanderbilt 2-10, Alabama 4-9 and 2 more), which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 1.63 points, more than the whole 1.56-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
  • The teams Ole Miss played had 146 games on their schedules in all, against 143 for Oregon's, and Level 2 is divided by that total, so each team Ole Miss beat adds less. This accounts for 0.35 of the 1.56-point rating gap (23%).
  • Oregon's loss to 5-7 Arizona St counts no more in Harbin than a loss to a top-10 team; it is unranked in the BCS standings.
Southern MissHarbin has in, reference does not#20---9-3
  • Against Ole Miss (Harbin #26, the first spot outside the BCS standings's top 25), Southern Miss beat 2 teams with 8+ wins (TCU 11-1 and Memphis 8-4), so its beaten opponents earned 265.0 Level 1 points in all (234.5 for Ole Miss's), a Level 2 term of 18.3 to 16.1; Ole Miss beat 6 teams with losing records (UL Monroe 1-11, Mississippi St 2-10, Vanderbilt 2-10, Alabama 4-9 and 2 more), which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 2.10 points, more than the whole 1.34-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
  • Southern Miss's loss to 4-9 Alabama counts no more in Harbin than a loss to a top-10 team; it is unranked in the BCS standings.
ClemsonHarbin has in, reference does not#25---8-4
  • Against Ole Miss (Harbin #26, the first spot outside the BCS standings's top 25), Clemson beat 1 team with 8+ wins (Florida St 10-2), so its beaten opponents earned 246.5 Level 1 points in all (234.5 for Ole Miss's), a Level 2 term of 17.1 to 16.1; Ole Miss beat 6 teams with losing records (UL Monroe 1-11, Mississippi St 2-10, Vanderbilt 2-10, Alabama 4-9 and 2 more), which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 0.83 points, more than the whole 0.35-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
  • The teams Ole Miss played had 146 games on their schedules in all, against 144 for Clemson's, and Level 2 is divided by that total, so each team Ole Miss beat adds less. This accounts for 0.23 of the 0.35-point rating gap (66%).
  • Clemson's loss to 5-7 Wake Forest counts no more in Harbin than a loss to a top-10 team; it is unranked in the BCS standings.

Biggest disagreements

TeamHarbinBCS standingsW-LWhy
Oklahoma St#32#219-3
  • Against Boise St (Harbin #21, the spot the BCS standings gives Oklahoma St), Oklahoma St's beaten opponents earned 220.5 Level 1 points in all (271.0 for Boise St's), a Level 2 term of 15.1 to 17.2. Oklahoma St beat 5 teams with losing records (SMU 0-12, Baylor 3-9, Louisiana 4-8, Texas A&M 4-8 and 1 more) and FCS Missouri St, which add little to Level 2; Boise St beat 3 teams with 8+ wins (Fresno St 8-5, Hawai'i 8-5 and Tulsa 8-4). This accounts for 3.33 points, more than the whole 2.30-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
  • Oklahoma St lost 3 of its 12 games (Nebraska 9-3, Oklahoma 12-1 and Texas 10-2), and every loss is a game worth 0 points in the Level 1 average: 9 of its 12 games earn points, against 12 of 13 for Boise St (lost to Oregon St 7-5). This accounts for 0.90 of the 2.30-point rating gap (39%).
Minnesota#36#259-3
  • Against Clemson (Harbin #25, the spot the BCS standings gives Minnesota), Minnesota's beaten opponents earned 203.5 Level 1 points in all (246.5 for Clemson's), a Level 2 term of 14.1 to 17.1. Minnesota beat 5 teams with losing records (Illinois 1-11, Indiana 2-10, Ohio 2-10, Penn State 3-9 and 1 more), which add little to Level 2; Clemson beat 1 team with 8+ wins (Florida St 10-2). This accounts for 2.99 points, more than the whole 2.53-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
  • Minnesota has no win over a Harbin top-25 team (best win: Wisconsin #33).
Utah#12#229-2
  • Against Nebraska (Harbin #22, the spot the BCS standings gives Utah), Utah beat 1 team with 8+ wins (Oregon 8-4), so its beaten opponents earned 275.5 Level 1 points in all (249.0 for Nebraska's), a Level 2 term of 20.7 to 17.1; Nebraska beat 5 teams with losing records (Iowa State 2-10, Penn State 3-9, Utah State 3-9, Texas A&M 4-8 and 1 more), which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 1.90 of the 3.52-point rating gap (54%).
  • The teams Nebraska played had 146 games on their schedules in all, against 133 for Utah's, and Level 2 is divided by that total, so each team Nebraska beat adds less. This accounts for 1.76 of the 3.52-point rating gap (50%).
  • Utah beat 1 Harbin top-25 team (Oregon #19) and 4 more in the top 50 (Colorado St #37, California #39, UNLV #41 and Air Force #49).
Purdue#23#149-3
  • Against Iowa (Harbin #14, the spot the BCS standings gives Purdue), Purdue's beaten opponents earned 241.0 Level 1 points in all (281.5 for Iowa's), a Level 2 term of 16.6 to 19.4. Purdue beat 6 teams with losing records (Illinois 1-11, Arizona 2-10, Indiana 2-10, Penn State 3-9 and 2 more), which add little to Level 2; Iowa beat 3 teams with 8+ wins (Miami OH 12-1, Michigan 10-2 and Minnesota 9-3). This accounts for 2.79 points, more than the whole 2.54-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
Maryland#16#239-3
  • Against Purdue (Harbin #23, the spot the BCS standings gives Maryland), Maryland beat 2 teams with 8+ wins (Clemson 8-4 and West Virginia 8-4), so its beaten opponents earned 273.5 Level 1 points in all (241.0 for Purdue's), a Level 2 term of 19.0 to 16.6; Purdue beat 6 teams with losing records (Illinois 1-11, Arizona 2-10, Indiana 2-10, Penn State 3-9 and 2 more), which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 2.25 points, more than the whole 1.96-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
  • Maryland beat 1 Harbin top-25 team (Clemson #25) and 3 more in the top 50 (West Virginia #29, NC State #35 and Virginia #40).
Oregon#19-8-4
  • Against Ole Miss (Harbin #26, the first spot outside the BCS standings's top 25), Oregon beat 1 team with 8+ wins (Michigan 10-2), so its beaten opponents earned 258.0 Level 1 points in all (234.5 for Ole Miss's), a Level 2 term of 18.0 to 16.1; Ole Miss beat 6 teams with losing records (UL Monroe 1-11, Mississippi St 2-10, Vanderbilt 2-10, Alabama 4-9 and 2 more), which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 1.63 points, more than the whole 1.56-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
  • The teams Ole Miss played had 146 games on their schedules in all, against 143 for Oregon's, and Level 2 is divided by that total, so each team Ole Miss beat adds less. This accounts for 0.35 of the 1.56-point rating gap (23%).
  • Oregon's loss to 5-7 Arizona St counts no more in Harbin than a loss to a top-10 team; it is unranked in the BCS standings.
Ole Miss#26#199-3
  • Against Oregon (Harbin #19, the spot the BCS standings gives Ole Miss), Ole Miss's beaten opponents earned 234.5 Level 1 points in all (258.0 for Oregon's), a Level 2 term of 16.1 to 18.0. Ole Miss beat 6 teams with losing records (UL Monroe 1-11, Mississippi St 2-10, Vanderbilt 2-10, Alabama 4-9 and 2 more), which add little to Level 2; Oregon beat 1 team with 8+ wins (Michigan 10-2). This accounts for 1.63 points, more than the whole 1.56-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
  • The teams Ole Miss played had 146 games on their schedules in all, against 143 for Oregon's, and Level 2 is divided by that total, so each team Ole Miss beat adds less. This accounts for 0.35 of the 1.56-point rating gap (23%).
Southern Miss#20-9-3
  • Against Ole Miss (Harbin #26, the first spot outside the BCS standings's top 25), Southern Miss beat 2 teams with 8+ wins (TCU 11-1 and Memphis 8-4), so its beaten opponents earned 265.0 Level 1 points in all (234.5 for Ole Miss's), a Level 2 term of 18.3 to 16.1; Ole Miss beat 6 teams with losing records (UL Monroe 1-11, Mississippi St 2-10, Vanderbilt 2-10, Alabama 4-9 and 2 more), which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 2.10 points, more than the whole 1.34-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
  • Southern Miss's loss to 4-9 Alabama counts no more in Harbin than a loss to a top-10 team; it is unranked in the BCS standings.

Compared with BCS standings of 2003-12-07. Written 2026-10-17 from games through 2003-12-07.