2022 season

4-team CFP era

Latest update: 2026-10-18 5:01 am ET  |  Week 15 status: COMPLETE

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2022 Harbin Rankings

FBS (national)All teamsPostseason scoresWhat if? (weighting sliders)

Power 4 conferences

ACCBig 12Big TenSECPac-12

Other FBS conferences

Conference USAMACMountain WestSun BeltAmerican (AAC)

Independents

FBS Independents

2022 season summary

Harbin's top four matches the real one exactly.

Among games between teams the committee ranked, Harbin put the loser above the winner in 15 of 41 (the committee: 12), and picked 6 of 10 postseason games (the committee: 6), behind the committee overall.

It flags 1 team that looks out of place: North Carolina (odd-in).

MeasureHarbinCFP committee (2022-12-04)
Results contradicted (fewer is better)15 of 41 (37%)12 of 41 (29%)
Postseason picks right6 of 10 (60%)6 of 10 (60%)
Playoff field matched4 of 4 (100%)n/a

Outliers

TeamKindHarbinCFP committeeAPFPIW-LWhy
North CarolinaHarbin has in, reference does not#25--#439-4
  • Against Ole Miss (Harbin #26, the first spot outside the committee's top 25), North Carolina beat no team with 9+ wins, so its beaten opponents earned 262.5 Level 1 points in all (238.5 for Ole Miss's), a Level 2 term of 18.8 to 16.4; Ole Miss beat 5 teams with losing records (Auburn 5-7, Georgia Tech 5-7, Texas A&M 5-7, Tulsa 5-7 and 1 more) and FCS C Arkansas, which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 1.68 points, more than the whole 0.92-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
  • The teams Ole Miss played had 145 games on their schedules in all, against 140 for North Carolina's, and Level 2 is divided by that total, so each team Ole Miss beat adds less. This accounts for 0.62 of the 0.92-point rating gap (67%).
  • North Carolina lost 3 of its 12 games (Notre Dame 8-4, Georgia Tech 5-7 and NC State 8-4), against 4 of 12 for Ole Miss (lost to LSU 9-4, Alabama 10-2, Arkansas 6-6 and Mississippi St 8-4), and every loss is a game worth 0 points in the Level 1 average. This accounts for 0.48 of the 0.92-point rating gap (52%).

Biggest disagreements

TeamHarbinCFP committeeW-LWhy
Troy#15#2411-2
  • Against South Carolina (Harbin #24, the spot the committee gives Troy), Troy beat 2 teams with 9+ wins (South Alabama 10-2 and Coastal 9-3), so its beaten opponents earned 304.5 Level 1 points in all (260.0 for South Carolina's), a Level 2 term of 19.5 to 17.9; South Carolina beat 4 teams with losing records (Charlotte 3-9, Georgia St 4-8, Texas A&M 5-7 and Vanderbilt 5-7) and FCS SC State, which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 2.96 points, more than the whole 1.87-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
  • Troy lost 2 of its 13 games (Ole Miss 8-4 and App State 6-6), against 4 of 12 for South Carolina (lost to Arkansas 6-6, Georgia 13-0, Missouri 6-6 and Florida 6-6), and every loss is a game worth 0 points in the Level 1 average. This accounts for 0.94 of the 1.87-point rating gap (50%).
  • Troy beat no Harbin top-25 team but 3 more in the top 50 (Coastal #28, Marshall #38 and South Alabama #39).
Mississippi St#30#228-4
  • Against NC State (Harbin #22, the spot the committee gives Mississippi St), Mississippi St's beaten opponents earned 224.5 Level 1 points in all (268.0 for NC State's), a Level 2 term of 15.5 to 18.7. Mississippi St beat 3 teams with losing records (Arizona 5-7, Auburn 5-7 and Texas A&M 5-7) and FCS ETSU, which add little to Level 2; NC State beat 2 teams with 9+ wins (Florida St 9-3 and North Carolina 9-4). This accounts for 3.02 of the 3.26-point rating gap (93%).
Oregon St#20#149-3
  • Against Florida St (Harbin #14, the spot the committee gives Oregon St), Oregon St's beaten opponents earned 269.5 Level 1 points in all (278.5 for Florida St's), a Level 2 term of 18.3 to 19.2. Oregon St beat 4 teams with losing records (Colorado 1-11, Arizona St 3-9, Stanford 3-9 and California 4-8) and FCS Montana St, which add little to Level 2; Florida St beat 1 team with 9+ wins (LSU 9-4). This accounts for 0.62 of the 1.00-point rating gap (62%).
  • The teams Oregon St played had 147 games on their schedules in all, against 145 for Florida St's, and Level 2 is divided by that total, so each team Oregon St beat adds less. This accounts for 0.26 of the 1.00-point rating gap (26%).

Compared with CFP committee of 2022-12-04. Written 2026-10-17 from games through 2022-12-04.