2015 season

4-team CFP era

Latest update: 2026-10-18 5:01 am ET  |  Week 15 status: COMPLETE

2015 Harbin Rankings

Power 4 conferences

Other FBS conferences

Independents

2015 season summary

Harbin's top four matches the real one exactly.

Among games between teams the committee ranked, Harbin put the loser above the winner in 8 of 40 (the committee: 11), and picked 6 of 11 postseason games (the committee: 6), ahead of the committee overall.

It flags 1 team that looks out of place: Toledo (odd-in).

MeasureHarbinCFP committee (2015-12-06)
Results contradicted (fewer is better)8 of 40 (20%)11 of 40 (28%)
Postseason picks right6 of 11 (55%)6 of 11 (55%)
Playoff field matched4 of 4 (100%)n/a

Outliers

TeamKindHarbinCFP committeeAPFPIW-LWhy
ToledoHarbin has in, reference does not#23--#469-2
  • Against Arkansas (Harbin #26, the first spot outside the committee's top 25), Toledo lost 2 of its 11 games (N Illinois 8-5 and W Michigan 7-5), against 5 of 12 for Arkansas (lost to Toledo 9-2, Texas Tech 7-5, Texas A&M 8-4, Alabama 12-1 and 1 more), and every loss is a game worth 0 points in the Level 1 average. This accounts for 1.31 points, more than the whole 0.94-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
  • The teams Arkansas played had 142 games on their schedules in all, against 134 for Toledo's, and Level 2 is divided by that total, so each team Arkansas beat adds less. This accounts for 1.00 points, more than the whole 0.94-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
  • Toledo beat no Harbin top-25 team but 3 more in the top 50 (Arkansas #26, Bowling Green #36 and Arkansas St #44).

Biggest disagreements

TeamHarbinCFP committeeW-LWhy
Temple#40#2410-3
  • Against Navy (Harbin #24, the spot the committee gives Temple), Temple's beaten opponents earned 220.0 Level 1 points in all (250.0 for Navy's), a Level 2 term of 15.3 to 17.2. Temple beat 6 teams with losing records (UCF 0-12, Charlotte 2-10, SMU 2-10, Tulane 3-9 and 2 more), which add little to Level 2; Navy beat 1 team with 9+ wins (Memphis 9-3). This accounts for 2.08 of the 3.18-point rating gap (65%).
  • Temple lost the AAC title game to Houston (12-1): it was its 13th game and earned 0 points, so its Level 1 average fell from 4.29 to 3.96 and Houston's 13 games went into its divisor with nothing earned; without that game Temple would rate 19.57 instead of 17.97. This accounts for 1.60 of the 3.18-point rating gap (50%).
Tennessee#37#238-4
  • Against Toledo (Harbin #23, the spot the committee gives Tennessee), The teams Tennessee played had 146 games on their schedules in all, against 134 for Toledo's, and Level 2 is divided by that total, so each team Tennessee beat adds less. This accounts for 1.38 of the 2.85-point rating gap (49%).
  • Tennessee's beaten opponents earned 219.0 Level 1 points in all (231.5 for Toledo's), a Level 2 term of 15.0 to 17.3. Tennessee beat 5 teams with losing records (North Texas 1-11, South Carolina 3-9, Vanderbilt 4-8, Kentucky 5-7 and 1 more) and FCS W Carolina, which add little to Level 2; Toledo beat 2 teams with 9+ wins (Bowling Green 10-3 and Arkansas St 9-3). This accounts for 0.89 of the 2.85-point rating gap (31%).
  • Tennessee lost 4 of its 12 games (Oklahoma 11-1, Florida 10-3, Arkansas 7-5 and Alabama 12-1), and every loss is a game worth 0 points in the Level 1 average: 8 of its 12 games earn points, against 9 of 11 for Toledo (lost to N Illinois 8-5 and W Michigan 7-5). This accounts for 0.83 of the 2.85-point rating gap (29%).
LSU#12#208-3
  • Against Michigan (Harbin #20, the spot the committee gives LSU), LSU beat 2 teams with 9+ wins (Western KY 11-2 and Florida 10-3), so its beaten opponents earned 283.0 Level 1 points in all (262.5 for Michigan's), a Level 2 term of 21.0 to 18.1; Michigan beat 5 teams with losing records (Oregon St 2-10, Maryland 3-9, UNLV 3-9, Rutgers 4-8 and 1 more), which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 1.47 of the 2.69-point rating gap (55%).
  • The teams Michigan played had 145 games on their schedules in all, against 135 for LSU's, and Level 2 is divided by that total, so each team Michigan beat adds less. This accounts for 1.39 of the 2.69-point rating gap (52%).
  • LSU beat 2 Harbin top-25 teams (Florida #18 and Western KY #21) and 3 more in the top 50 (Mississippi St #28, Texas A&M #35 and Auburn #45).
TCU#19#1110-2
  • Against North Carolina (Harbin #11, the spot the committee gives TCU), TCU's beaten opponents earned 262.5 Level 1 points in all (321.0 for North Carolina's), a Level 2 term of 18.4 to 22.6. TCU beat 5 teams with losing records (Kansas 0-12, SMU 2-10, Iowa State 3-9, Minnesota 5-7 and 1 more) and FCS SF Austin, which add little to Level 2; North Carolina beat no team with 9+ wins. This accounts for 4.11 points, more than the whole 2.31-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
  • TCU lost 2 of its 12 games (Oklahoma St 10-2 and Oklahoma 11-1), and every loss is a game worth 0 points in the Level 1 average: 10 of its 12 games earn points, against 11 of 12 for North Carolina (lost to South Carolina 3-9). This accounts for 0.49 of the 2.31-point rating gap (21%).
Baylor#25#179-3
  • Against Utah (Harbin #17, the spot the committee gives Baylor), Baylor's beaten opponents earned 234.5 Level 1 points in all (286.0 for Utah's), a Level 2 term of 16.4 to 19.6. Baylor beat 4 teams with losing records (Kansas 0-12, SMU 2-10, Iowa State 3-9 and Rice 5-7) and FCS Lamar, which add little to Level 2; Utah beat 2 teams with 9+ wins (Michigan 9-3 and Oregon 9-3). This accounts for 3.56 points, more than the whole 3.48-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
Michigan#20#149-3
  • Against Oklahoma St (Harbin #14, the spot the committee gives Michigan), Michigan's beaten opponents earned 262.5 Level 1 points in all (289.5 for Oklahoma St's), a Level 2 term of 18.1 to 20.2. Michigan beat 5 teams with losing records (Oregon St 2-10, Maryland 3-9, UNLV 3-9, Rutgers 4-8 and 1 more), which add little to Level 2; Oklahoma St beat 1 team with 9+ wins (TCU 10-2). This accounts for 1.88 of the 2.39-point rating gap (78%).
  • Michigan lost 3 of its 12 games (Utah 9-3, Michigan St 12-1 and Ohio State 11-1), and every loss is a game worth 0 points in the Level 1 average: 9 of its 12 games earn points, against 10 of 12 for Oklahoma St (lost to Baylor 9-3 and Oklahoma 11-1). This accounts for 0.50 of the 2.39-point rating gap (21%).

Compared with CFP committee of 2015-12-06. Written 2026-10-17 from games through 2015-12-06.