2010 season

BCS era

Latest update: 2026-10-18 5:01 am ET  |  Week 15 status: COMPLETE

2010 Harbin Rankings

Power 4 conferences

Other FBS conferences

Independents

2010 season summary

Harbin's top two are Auburn and Oregon; the title game was Oregon vs Auburn, so Harbin got 2 of 2 right; across the whole BCS lineup (title game and four bowls), run by that year's rules, Harbin matches 8 of 10 teams.

Among games between teams the BCS standings ranked, Harbin put the loser above the winner in 12 of 35 (the BCS standings: 9), and picked 6 of 8 postseason games (the BCS standings: 6), behind the BCS standings overall.

It flags no team that looks out of place.

MeasureHarbinBCS standings (2010-12-07)
Results contradicted (fewer is better)12 of 35 (34%)9 of 35 (26%)
Postseason picks right6 of 8 (75%)6 of 8 (75%)
Playoff field matched8 of 10 (80%)n/a

Field changes

Title game: Harbin Auburn vs Oregon; real Auburn vs Oregon.

Teams Harbin would add to, or drop from, the real field (the title game and the four BCS bowls).

Harbin adds

TeamHarbinBCS standingsWhy
Missouri#4#12
  • Against Arkansas (the team it displaces), Missouri beat 3 teams with 9+ wins (Oklahoma 11-2, Miami OH 9-4 and Texas A&M 9-3), so its beaten opponents earned 369.5 Level 1 points in all (339.5 for Arkansas's), a Level 2 term of 25.3 to 23.4; Arkansas beat 3 teams with losing records (Vanderbilt 2-10, Ole Miss 4-8 and UL Monroe 5-7) and FCS Tennessee Tech, which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 2.06 points, more than the whole 1.89-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
  • Harbin ranks Missouri #4 and it is an Big 12 non-champion with 10 wins, so the 3-4 rule gives it an automatic berth (the best at-large team at #3, else #4); the real Sugar Bowl had Arkansas (Harbin #9) instead.
Michigan St#5#9
  • Against Ohio State (the team it displaces), Michigan St beat 1 team with 9+ wins (Wisconsin 11-1), so its beaten opponents earned 353.0 Level 1 points in all (332.5 for Ohio State's), a Level 2 term of 24.7 to 23.1; Ohio State beat 5 teams with losing records (E Michigan 2-10, Minnesota 3-9, Purdue 4-8, Indiana 5-7 and 1 more), which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 1.43 points, more than the whole 1.43-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
  • Harbin ranks Michigan St #5 and it has 11 wins, so it is eligible (9+ wins, top 14) and the best available at-large pick; the real Sugar Bowl had Ohio State (Harbin #6) instead.
  • Michigan St beat 2 Harbin top-25 teams (Wisconsin #15 and Notre Dame #23) and 3 more in the top 50 (Michigan #36, Penn State #39 and Illinois #43); Ohio State, the team it displaces, has 0 top-25 wins and 5 more in the top 50.

Harbin drops

TeamHarbinBCS standingsWhy
Ohio State#6#6
  • Against Michigan St (the team that takes its place), Ohio State's beaten opponents earned 332.5 Level 1 points in all (353.0 for Michigan St's), a Level 2 term of 23.1 to 24.7. Ohio State beat 5 teams with losing records (E Michigan 2-10, Minnesota 3-9, Purdue 4-8, Indiana 5-7 and 1 more), which add little to Level 2; Michigan St beat 1 team with 9+ wins (Wisconsin 11-1). This accounts for 1.43 points, more than the whole 1.43-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
  • The real Sugar Bowl took Ohio State (at-large (#6; Big Ten champion Wisconsin went to the Rose)). Harbin ranks Ohio State #6, but Big Ten already has two teams in Harbin's lineup, the most the rules allow. Harbin's lineup has Michigan St (#5) there instead.
Arkansas#9#8
  • Against Missouri (the team that takes its place), Arkansas's beaten opponents earned 339.5 Level 1 points in all (369.5 for Missouri's), a Level 2 term of 23.4 to 25.3. Arkansas beat 3 teams with losing records (Vanderbilt 2-10, Ole Miss 4-8 and UL Monroe 5-7) and FCS Tennessee Tech, which add little to Level 2; Missouri beat 3 teams with 9+ wins (Oklahoma 11-2, Miami OH 9-4 and Texas A&M 9-3). This accounts for 2.06 points, more than the whole 1.89-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
  • The real Sugar Bowl took Arkansas (at-large (#8; replaced SEC champion Auburn)). Harbin ranks Arkansas #9 (10 wins), and its at-large berths go to better-ranked eligible teams. Harbin's lineup has Missouri (#4) there instead.

Biggest disagreements

TeamHarbinBCS standingsW-LWhy
Mississippi St#37#218-4
  • Against West Virginia (Harbin #21, the spot the BCS standings gives Mississippi St), Mississippi St's beaten opponents earned 190.0 Level 1 points in all (251.0 for West Virginia's), a Level 2 term of 13.2 to 17.4. Mississippi St beat 4 teams with losing records (Memphis 1-11, Ole Miss 4-8, UAB 4-8 and Houston 5-7) and FCS Alcorn St, which add little to Level 2; West Virginia beat no team with 9+ wins. This accounts for 4.24 of the 4.90-point rating gap (86%).
  • Mississippi St has no win over a Harbin top-25 team (best win: Florida #29).
UCF#41#2510-3
  • Against Utah (Harbin #25, the spot the BCS standings gives UCF), UCF's beaten opponents earned 202.5 Level 1 points in all (221.5 for Utah's), a Level 2 term of 13.0 to 15.2. UCF beat 7 teams with losing records (Memphis 1-11, Buffalo 2-10, Rice 4-8, Tulane 4-8 and 3 more) and FCS South Dakota, which add little to Level 2; Utah beat no team with 9+ wins. This accounts for 1.26 of the 2.91-point rating gap (43%).
  • The teams UCF played had 156 games on their schedules in all, against 146 for Utah's, and Level 2 is divided by that total, so each team UCF beat adds less. This accounts for 0.93 of the 2.91-point rating gap (32%).
  • UCF has no win over a Harbin top-25 team (best win: East Carolina #49).
Wisconsin#15#511-1
  • Against Michigan St (Harbin #5, the spot the BCS standings gives Wisconsin), Wisconsin's beaten opponents earned 300.0 Level 1 points in all (353.0 for Michigan St's), a Level 2 term of 20.7 to 24.7. Wisconsin beat 5 teams with losing records (San José St 1-12, UNLV 2-11, Minnesota 3-9, Purdue 4-8 and 1 more) and FCS Austin Peay, which add little to Level 2; Michigan St beat 1 team with 9+ wins (Wisconsin 11-1). This accounts for 3.68 of the 4.00-point rating gap (92%).
Missouri#4#1210-2
  • Against Texas A&M (Harbin #12, the spot the BCS standings gives Missouri), Missouri beat 3 teams with 9+ wins (Oklahoma 11-2, Miami OH 9-4 and Texas A&M 9-3), so its beaten opponents earned 369.5 Level 1 points in all (329.5 for Texas A&M's), a Level 2 term of 25.3 to 22.7; Texas A&M beat 3 teams with losing records (Kansas 3-9, Louisiana Tech 5-7 and Texas 5-7) and FCS SF Austin, which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 2.75 of the 3.13-point rating gap (88%).
  • Missouri lost 2 of its 12 games (Nebraska 10-3 and Texas Tech 7-5), against 3 of 12 for Texas A&M (lost to Oklahoma St 10-2, Arkansas 10-2 and Missouri 10-2), and every loss is a game worth 0 points in the Level 1 average. This accounts for 0.48 of the 3.13-point rating gap (15%).
  • Missouri beat 2 Harbin top-25 teams (Oklahoma #3 and Texas A&M #12) and 2 more in the top 50 (Illinois #43 and Kansas St #47).
TCU#11#312-0
  • Against Oklahoma (Harbin #3, the spot the BCS standings gives TCU), TCU's beaten opponents earned 325.0 Level 1 points in all (411.0 for Oklahoma's), a Level 2 term of 22.4 to 26.0. TCU beat 5 teams with losing records (New Mexico 1-11, UNLV 2-11, Colorado St 3-9, Wyoming 3-9 and 1 more) and FCS Tennessee Tech, which add little to Level 2; Oklahoma beat 3 teams with 9+ wins (Nebraska 10-3, Oklahoma St 10-2 and Florida St 9-4). This accounts for 5.69 points, more than the whole 3.78-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
  • TCU's wins earn less: 5.08 Level 1 points per win, against 6.23 for Oklahoma. 10 of its 12 wins came over teams worth less than a top-tier win (6.5): 9 over other FBS teams (5.0 each: SMU, Colorado St, Wyoming, BYU and 5 more) and FCS Tennessee Tech (3.0); Oklahoma had 2 (2 over other FBS teams (5.0 each: Utah State and Air Force)). This accounts for 1.06 of the 3.78-point rating gap (28%).
Hawai'i#31#2410-3
  • Against UConn (Harbin #24, the spot the BCS standings gives Hawai'i), The teams Hawai'i played had 160 games on their schedules in all, against 143 for UConn's, and Level 2 is divided by that total, so each team Hawai'i beat adds less. This accounts for 1.71 of the 2.27-point rating gap (76%).
  • Hawai'i's wins earn less: 4.80 Level 1 points per win, against 5.88 for UConn. 10 of its 10 wins came over teams worth less than a top-tier win (6.5): 9 over other FBS teams (5.0 each: Army, Louisiana Tech, Fresno St, Nevada and 5 more) and FCS Charleston So (3.0); UConn had 2 (1 over other FBS teams (5.0 each: Buffalo) and FCS Texas Southern (3.0)). This accounts for 0.77 of the 2.27-point rating gap (34%).
Utah#25#1910-2
  • Against South Carolina (Harbin #19, the spot the BCS standings gives Utah), Utah's beaten opponents earned 221.5 Level 1 points in all (295.5 for South Carolina's), a Level 2 term of 15.2 to 20.5. Utah beat 6 teams with losing records (New Mexico 1-11, San José St 1-12, UNLV 2-11, Colorado St 3-9 and 2 more), which add little to Level 2; South Carolina beat 1 team with 9+ wins (Alabama 9-3). This accounts for 5.10 points, more than the whole 3.23-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
  • Utah has no win over a Harbin top-25 team (best win: Pitt #35).

Compared with BCS standings of 2010-12-07. Written 2026-10-17 from games through 2010-12-07.