2002 season

BCS era

Latest update: 2026-10-18 5:01 am ET | Week 16 status: COMPLETE

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2002 Harbin Rankings

FBS (national)All teams Postseason scores What if? (weighting sliders)

2002 season summary

Harbin's top two are Miami and Ohio State; the title game was Miami vs Ohio State, so Harbin got 2 of 2 right; across the whole BCS lineup (title game and four bowls), run by that year's rules, Harbin matches 8 of 8 teams.

Among games between teams the BCS standings ranked, Harbin put the loser above the winner in 3 of 19 (the BCS standings: 4), and picked 3 of 4 postseason games (the BCS standings: 2), ahead of the BCS standings overall.

It flags 2 teams that look out of place: Virginia (odd-in) and South Florida (odd-in).

Ineligible for the postseason, so ranked but left out of Harbin's field: Alabama (#12).

Measure	Harbin	BCS standings (2002-12-08)
Results contradicted (fewer is better)	3 of 19 (16%)	4 of 19 (21%)
Postseason picks right	3 of 4 (75%)	2 of 4 (50%)
Playoff field matched	8 of 8 (100%)	n/a

Field changes

Title game: Harbin Miami vs Ohio State; real Miami vs Ohio State.

Teams Harbin would add to, or drop from, the real field (the title game and the four BCS bowls).

Not eligible for the postseason

These teams rank in Harbin's top 25 but could not play in the postseason. They stay in the rankings, shaded pink, and are skipped for every field and cut line.

Team	Harbin	W-L	Why
Alabama	#12	10-3	NCAA sanctions: NCAA bowl ban (2002 and 2003) in the Albert Means recruiting case; 10-3 Alabama won the SEC West but could not play in a bowl.

Outliers

Team	Kind	Harbin	BCS standings	AP	FPI	W-L	Why
Virginia	Harbin has in, reference does not	#23	-	-	-	8-5	Against TCU (Harbin #26, the first spot outside the BCS standings's top 25), Virginia beat 2 teams with 8+ wins (Maryland 10-3 and NC State 10-3), so its beaten opponents earned 270.5 Level 1 points in all (214.5 for TCU's), a Level 2 term of 16.8 to 16.1; TCU beat 5 teams with losing records (Army 1-11, Memphis 3-9, Northwestern 3-9, SMU 3-9 and 1 more), which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 3.84 points, more than the whole 0.33-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way. Virginia's wins earn more: 6.31 Level 1 points per win, against 5.17 for TCU. 7 of its 8 wins came over top-tier teams (6.5 each: Maryland #16, NC State #21, Clemson #47, Wake Forest #61 and 3 more); TCU had 1 of 9, plus 8 over other FBS teams (5.0 each: SMU, North Texas, Houston, Army and 4 more). This accounts for 0.82 points, more than the whole 0.33-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way. Virginia beat 2 Harbin top-25 teams (Maryland #16 and NC State #21) and 1 more in the top 50 (Clemson #47).
South Florida	Harbin has in, reference does not	#25	-	-	-	9-2	Against TCU (Harbin #26, the first spot outside the BCS standings's top 25), South Florida beat 2 teams with 8+ wins (Bowling Green 9-3 and N Illinois 8-4), so its beaten opponents earned 225.0 Level 1 points in all (214.5 for TCU's), a Level 2 term of 16.9 to 16.1; TCU beat 5 teams with losing records (Army 1-11, Memphis 3-9, Northwestern 3-9, SMU 3-9 and 1 more), which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 0.79 points, more than the whole 0.29-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.

Biggest disagreements

Team	Harbin	BCS standings	W-L	Why
South Florida	#25	-	9-2	Against TCU (Harbin #26, the first spot outside the BCS standings's top 25), South Florida beat 2 teams with 8+ wins (Bowling Green 9-3 and N Illinois 8-4), so its beaten opponents earned 225.0 Level 1 points in all (214.5 for TCU's), a Level 2 term of 16.9 to 16.1; TCU beat 5 teams with losing records (Army 1-11, Memphis 3-9, Northwestern 3-9, SMU 3-9 and 1 more), which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 0.79 points, more than the whole 0.29-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
Boise St	#24	-	11-1	Against TCU (Harbin #26, the first spot outside the BCS standings's top 25), Boise St beat 2 teams with 8+ wins (Hawai'i 10-3 and Fresno St 8-5), so its beaten opponents earned 235.0 Level 1 points in all (214.5 for TCU's), a Level 2 term of 16.1 to 16.1; TCU beat 5 teams with losing records (Army 1-11, Memphis 3-9, Northwestern 3-9, SMU 3-9 and 1 more), which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 1.47 points, more than the whole 0.32-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way. Boise St lost 1 of its 12 games (Arkansas 9-4), against 2 of 11 for TCU (lost to Cincinnati 7-6 and East Carolina 4-8), and every loss is a game worth 0 points in the Level 1 average. This accounts for 0.50 points, more than the whole 0.32-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
Colorado	#20	#13	9-4	Against Kansas St (Harbin #13, the spot the BCS standings gives Colorado), Colorado lost the Big 12 title game to Oklahoma (11-2): it was its 13th game and earned 0 points, so its Level 1 average fell from 4.75 to 4.38 and Oklahoma's 13 games went into its divisor with nothing earned; without that game Colorado would rate 24.72 instead of 22.76. This accounts for 1.96 of the 2.52-point rating gap (78%). Colorado lost 3 of its 12 games (Colorado St 10-3, USC 10-2 and Oklahoma 11-2), and every loss is a game worth 0 points in the Level 1 average: 9 of its 12 games earn points, against 10 of 12 for Kansas St (lost to Colorado 9-4 and Texas 10-2). This accounts for 0.50 of the 2.52-point rating gap (20%).
West Virginia	#22	#15	9-3	Against Florida (Harbin #15, the spot the BCS standings gives West Virginia), West Virginia's beaten opponents earned 258.5 Level 1 points in all (294.0 for Florida's), a Level 2 term of 17.5 to 20.1. West Virginia beat 4 teams with losing records (Rutgers 1-11, East Carolina 4-8, Syracuse 4-8 and Temple 4-8) and FCS Chattanooga, which add little to Level 2; Florida beat 3 teams with 8+ wins (Georgia 12-1, Auburn 8-4 and Tennessee 8-4). This accounts for 2.42 of the 2.42-point rating gap (100%).
Virginia	#23	-	8-5	Against TCU (Harbin #26, the first spot outside the BCS standings's top 25), Virginia beat 2 teams with 8+ wins (Maryland 10-3 and NC State 10-3), so its beaten opponents earned 270.5 Level 1 points in all (214.5 for TCU's), a Level 2 term of 16.8 to 16.1; TCU beat 5 teams with losing records (Army 1-11, Memphis 3-9, Northwestern 3-9, SMU 3-9 and 1 more), which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 3.84 points, more than the whole 0.33-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way. Virginia's wins earn more: 6.31 Level 1 points per win, against 5.17 for TCU. 7 of its 8 wins came over top-tier teams (6.5 each: Maryland #16, NC State #21, Clemson #47, Wake Forest #61 and 3 more); TCU had 1 of 9, plus 8 over other FBS teams (5.0 each: SMU, North Texas, Houston, Army and 4 more). This accounts for 0.82 points, more than the whole 0.33-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
Penn State	#18	#12	9-3	Against Alabama (Harbin #12, the spot the BCS standings gives Penn State), Penn State's beaten opponents earned 271.5 Level 1 points in all (339.5 for Alabama's), a Level 2 term of 18.3 to 21.2. Penn State beat 5 teams with losing records (Indiana 3-9, Northwestern 3-9, Louisiana Tech 4-8, Michigan St 4-8 and 1 more), which add little to Level 2; Alabama beat 4 teams with 8+ wins (Hawai'i 10-3, Arkansas 9-4, LSU 8-4 and Tennessee 8-4). This accounts for 4.42 points, more than the whole 2.79-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.

Checks

Harbin ranks these teams in its top 15, yet the reference left them unranked, and they are not on the ineligible list. Each may be missing a postseason ban.

Team	Harbin	W-L	Note
Colorado St	#14	10-3	Harbin #14 but unranked by the BCS standings: check for a postseason ban or other ineligibility
Florida	#15	8-4	Harbin #15 but unranked by the BCS standings: check for a postseason ban or other ineligibility

Compared with BCS standings of 2002-12-08. Written 2026-10-17 from games through 2002-12-08.