2008 season

BCS era

Latest update: 2026-10-18 5:01 am ET  |  Week 16 status: COMPLETE

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2008 Harbin Rankings

FBS (national)All teamsPostseason scoresWhat if? (weighting sliders)

Power 4 conferences

ACCBig 12Big TenSECPac-12Big East

Other FBS conferences

Conference USAMACWACMountain WestSun Belt

Independents

FBS Independents

2008 season summary

Harbin's top two are Florida and Texas; the title game was Oklahoma vs Florida, so Harbin got 1 of 2 right; across the whole BCS lineup (title game and four bowls), run by that year's rules, Harbin matches 9 of 10 teams.

Among games between teams the BCS standings ranked, Harbin put the loser above the winner in 5 of 33 (the BCS standings: 5), and picked 6 of 10 postseason games (the BCS standings: 4), ahead of the BCS standings overall.

It flags 1 team that looks out of place: East Carolina (odd-in).

MeasureHarbinBCS standings (2008-12-09)
Results contradicted (fewer is better)5 of 33 (15%)5 of 33 (15%)
Postseason picks right6 of 10 (60%)4 of 10 (40%)
Playoff field matched9 of 10 (90%)n/a

Field changes

Title game: Harbin Florida vs Texas; real Oklahoma vs Florida.

Teams Harbin would add to, or drop from, the real field (the title game and the four BCS bowls).

Harbin adds

TeamHarbinBCS standingsWhy
Boise St#9#9
  • Against Ohio State (the team it displaces), Boise St won all 12 of its games, against 2 of 12 for Ohio State (lost to USC 11-1 and Penn State 11-1), and every loss is a game worth 0 points in the Level 1 average. This accounts for 0.90 points, more than the whole 0.52-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
  • Harbin ranks Boise St #9 and it has 12 wins, so it is eligible (9+ wins, top 14) and the best available at-large pick; the real Fiesta Bowl had Ohio State (Harbin #11) instead.
  • Boise St beat 1 team with 9+ wins (Oregon 9-3), so its beaten opponents earned 325.5 Level 1 points in all (317.0 for Ohio State's), a Level 2 term of 22.4 to 22.0; Ohio State beat 4 teams with losing records (Michigan 3-9, Ohio 4-8, Purdue 4-8 and Illinois 5-7) and FCS Youngstown St, which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 0.59 points, more than the whole 0.52-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.

Harbin drops

TeamHarbinBCS standingsWhy
Ohio State#11#10
  • Against Boise St (the team that takes its place), Ohio State lost 2 of its 12 games (USC 11-1 and Penn State 11-1), and every loss is a game worth 0 points in the Level 1 average: 10 of its 12 games earn points, against 12 of 12 for Boise St (unbeaten). This accounts for 0.90 points, more than the whole 0.52-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
  • The real Fiesta Bowl took Ohio State (at-large (#10)). Harbin ranks Ohio State #11 (10 wins), and its at-large berths go to better-ranked eligible teams. Harbin's lineup has Boise St (#9) there instead.
  • Ohio State's beaten opponents earned 317.0 Level 1 points in all (325.5 for Boise St's), a Level 2 term of 22.0 to 22.4. Ohio State beat 4 teams with losing records (Michigan 3-9, Ohio 4-8, Purdue 4-8 and Illinois 5-7) and FCS Youngstown St, which add little to Level 2; Boise St beat 1 team with 9+ wins (Oregon 9-3). This accounts for 0.59 points, more than the whole 0.52-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.

Title game

Teams Harbin would put into, or take out of, the national-title game (those not already listed above).

Harbin puts in the title game

TeamHarbinBCS standingsWhy
Texas#2#3
  • Against Oklahoma (the team it displaces), The teams Oklahoma played had 158 games on their schedules in all, against 146 for Texas's, and Level 2 is divided by that total, so each team Oklahoma beat adds less. This accounts for 2.21 points, more than the whole 0.77-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.

Harbin takes out of the title game

TeamHarbinBCS standingsWhy
Oklahoma#3#1
  • Against Texas (the team that takes its place), The teams Oklahoma played had 158 games on their schedules in all, against 146 for Texas's, and Level 2 is divided by that total, so each team Oklahoma beat adds less. This accounts for 2.21 points, more than the whole 0.77-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.

Outliers

TeamKindHarbinBCS standingsAPFPIW-LWhy
East CarolinaHarbin has in, reference does not#24--#599-4
  • Against Florida St (Harbin #26, the first spot outside the BCS standings's top 25), East Carolina beat 2 teams with 9+ wins (Tulsa 10-3 and Virginia Tech 9-4), so its beaten opponents earned 265.5 Level 1 points in all (243.5 for Florida St's), a Level 2 term of 16.8 to 16.6; Florida St beat 1 team with a losing record (Colorado 5-7) and FCS W Carolina and FCS Chattanooga, which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 1.44 points, more than the whole 0.18-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
  • East Carolina lost 4 of its 13 games (NC State 6-6, Houston 7-5, Virginia 5-7 and Southern Miss 6-6), against 4 of 12 for Florida St (lost to Wake Forest 7-5, Georgia Tech 9-3, Boston College 9-4 and Florida 12-1), and every loss is a game worth 0 points in the Level 1 average. This accounts for 0.14 of the 0.18-point rating gap (77%).
  • East Carolina's loss to 5-7 Virginia counts no more in Harbin than a loss to a top-10 team; it is unranked in the BCS standings.

Biggest disagreements

TeamHarbinBCS standingsW-LWhy
Oklahoma St#32#139-3
  • Against Georgia Tech (Harbin #13, the spot the BCS standings gives Oklahoma St), Oklahoma St's beaten opponents earned 225.5 Level 1 points in all (309.0 for Georgia Tech's), a Level 2 term of 15.4 to 21.5. Oklahoma St beat 5 teams with losing records (Iowa State 2-10, Washington St 2-11, Baylor 4-8, Texas A&M 4-8 and 1 more) and FCS Missouri St, which add little to Level 2; Georgia Tech beat 2 teams with 9+ wins (Boston College 9-4 and Georgia 9-3). This accounts for 5.76 of the 5.97-point rating gap (96%).
  • Oklahoma St has no win over a Harbin top-25 team (best win: Missouri #33).
BYU#34#1610-2
  • Against Virginia Tech (Harbin #16, the spot the BCS standings gives BYU), BYU's beaten opponents earned 216.0 Level 1 points in all (314.0 for Virginia Tech's), a Level 2 term of 15.0 to 19.7. BYU beat 7 teams with losing records (Washington 0-12, San Diego St 2-10, Utah State 3-9, New Mexico 4-8 and 3 more) and FCS Northern Iowa, which add little to Level 2; Virginia Tech beat 2 teams with 9+ wins (Boston College 9-4 and Georgia Tech 9-3). This accounts for 6.48 points, more than the whole 4.61-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
  • BYU has no win over a Harbin top-25 team (best win: Air Force #56).
North Carolina#14-8-4
  • Against Florida St (Harbin #26, the first spot outside the BCS standings's top 25), North Carolina beat 2 teams with 9+ wins (Boston College 9-4 and Georgia Tech 9-3), so its beaten opponents earned 300.0 Level 1 points in all (243.5 for Florida St's), a Level 2 term of 20.7 to 16.6; Florida St beat 1 team with a losing record (Colorado 5-7) and FCS W Carolina and FCS Chattanooga, which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 3.87 of the 4.42-point rating gap (88%).
  • North Carolina beat 2 Harbin top-25 teams (Georgia Tech #13 and Boston College #18) and 3 more in the top 50 (Rutgers #38, Miami #40 and UConn #46).
  • North Carolina's loss to 5-7 Virginia counts no more in Harbin than a loss to a top-10 team; it is unranked in the BCS standings.
TCU#23#1110-2
  • Against Ohio State (Harbin #11, the spot the BCS standings gives TCU), TCU's beaten opponents earned 239.0 Level 1 points in all (317.0 for Ohio State's), a Level 2 term of 16.5 to 22.0. TCU beat 6 teams with losing records (SMU 1-11, San Diego St 2-10, New Mexico 4-8, Wyoming 4-8 and 2 more) and FCS SF Austin, which add little to Level 2; Ohio State beat 2 teams with 9+ wins (Michigan St 9-3 and Northwestern 9-3). This accounts for 5.40 of the 6.28-point rating gap (86%).
  • TCU has no win over a Harbin top-25 team (best win: BYU #34).
Missouri#33#219-4
  • Against Northwestern (Harbin #21, the spot the BCS standings gives Missouri), Missouri lost the Big 12 title game to Oklahoma (12-1): it was its 13th game and earned 0 points, so its Level 1 average fell from 4.33 to 4.00 and Oklahoma's 13 games went into its divisor with nothing earned; without that game Missouri would rate 21.06 instead of 19.35. This accounts for 1.71 points, more than the whole 1.40-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
  • The teams Missouri played had 145 games on their schedules in all, against 143 for Northwestern's, and Level 2 is divided by that total, so each team Missouri beat adds less. This accounts for 0.23 of the 1.40-point rating gap (16%).
Pitt#10#209-3
  • Against Ball State (Harbin #20, the spot the BCS standings gives Pitt), Pitt beat no team with 9+ wins, so its beaten opponents earned 332.5 Level 1 points in all (261.5 for Ball State's), a Level 2 term of 22.8 to 18.2; Ball State beat 7 teams with losing records (Miami OH 2-10, Western KY 2-10, E Michigan 3-9, Indiana 3-9 and 3 more) and FCS Northeastern, which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 4.90 of the 6.17-point rating gap (79%).
  • Ball State lost the MAC title game to Buffalo (8-5): it was its 13th game and earned 0 points, so its Level 1 average fell from 4.96 to 4.58 and Buffalo's 13 games went into its divisor with nothing earned; without that game Ball State would rate 23.12 instead of 21.23. This accounts for 1.89 of the 6.17-point rating gap (31%).
  • Pitt's wins earn more: 6.17 Level 1 points per win, against 4.96 for Ball State. 7 of its 9 wins came over top-tier teams (6.5 each: Iowa #28, West Virginia #30, South Florida #45, UConn #46 and 3 more); Ball State had 1 of 12, plus 10 over other FBS teams (5.0 each: Navy, Akron, Kent State, Toledo and 6 more) and FCS Northeastern (3.0). This accounts for 1.06 of the 6.17-point rating gap (17%).
Oregon#27#179-3
  • Against Michigan St (Harbin #17, the spot the BCS standings gives Oregon), Oregon's beaten opponents earned 224.5 Level 1 points in all (270.5 for Michigan St's), a Level 2 term of 15.5 to 18.8. Oregon beat 7 teams with losing records (Washington 0-12, Washington St 2-11, Utah State 3-9, Purdue 4-8 and 3 more), which add little to Level 2; Michigan St beat 1 team with 9+ wins (Northwestern 9-3). This accounts for 3.18 points, more than the whole 3.18-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
Oregon St#19-8-4
  • Against Florida St (Harbin #26, the first spot outside the BCS standings's top 25), Oregon St beat 1 team with 9+ wins (USC 11-1), so its beaten opponents earned 263.5 Level 1 points in all (243.5 for Florida St's), a Level 2 term of 18.0 to 16.6; Florida St beat 1 team with a losing record (Colorado 5-7) and FCS W Carolina and FCS Chattanooga, which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 1.37 of the 1.94-point rating gap (70%).
  • Oregon St's wins earn more: 6.31 Level 1 points per win, against 5.63 for Florida St. 7 of its 8 wins came over top-tier teams (6.5 each: USC #4, California #25, Arizona #61, Arizona St #87 and 3 more); Florida St had 6 of 8, plus FCS W Carolina and FCS Chattanooga (3.0 each). This accounts for 0.46 of the 1.94-point rating gap (24%).
  • Oregon St's loss to 5-7 Stanford counts no more in Harbin than a loss to a top-10 team; it is unranked in the BCS standings.
Boston College#18#249-4
  • Against East Carolina (Harbin #24, the spot the BCS standings gives Boston College), Boston College beat 1 team with 9+ wins (Virginia Tech 9-4), so its beaten opponents earned 299.5 Level 1 points in all (265.5 for East Carolina's), a Level 2 term of 20.7 to 16.8; East Carolina beat 5 teams with losing records (Tulane 2-10, Marshall 4-8, UAB 4-8, UCF 4-8 and 1 more), which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 2.25 of the 2.46-point rating gap (91%).
  • The teams East Carolina played had 158 games on their schedules in all, against 145 for Boston College's, and Level 2 is divided by that total, so each team East Carolina beat adds less. This accounts for 1.60 of the 2.46-point rating gap (65%).
  • Boston College beat 1 Harbin top-25 team (Virginia Tech #16) and 4 more in the top 50 (Florida St #26, Wake Forest #29, Maryland #31 and NC State #35).

Checks

Harbin ranks these teams in its top 15, yet the reference left them unranked, and they are not on the ineligible list. Each may be missing a postseason ban.

TeamHarbinW-LNote
North Carolina#148-4Harbin #14 but unranked by the BCS standings: check for a postseason ban or other ineligibility

Compared with BCS standings of 2008-12-09. Written 2026-10-17 from games through 2008-12-09.