2007 season

BCS era

Latest update: 2026-10-18 5:01 am ET | Week 16 status: COMPLETE

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2007 Harbin Rankings

FBS (national)All teams Postseason scores What if? (weighting sliders)

2007 season summary

Harbin's top two are LSU and Ohio State; the title game was Ohio State vs LSU, so Harbin got 2 of 2 right; across the whole BCS lineup (title game and four bowls), run by that year's rules, Harbin matches 7 of 10 teams.

Among games between teams the BCS standings ranked, Harbin put the loser above the winner in 7 of 32 (the BCS standings: 7), and picked 4 of 8 postseason games (the BCS standings: 3), ahead of the BCS standings overall.

It flags no team that looks out of place.

Measure	Harbin	BCS standings (2007-12-04)
Results contradicted (fewer is better)	7 of 32 (22%)	7 of 32 (22%)
Postseason picks right	4 of 8 (50%)	3 of 8 (38%)
Playoff field matched	7 of 10 (70%)	n/a

Field changes

Title game: Harbin LSU vs Ohio State; real Ohio State vs LSU.

Teams Harbin would add to, or drop from, the real field (the title game and the four BCS bowls).

Harbin adds

Team	Harbin	BCS standings	Why
Missouri	#6	#6	Against Hawai'i (the team it displaces), Missouri beat 2 teams with 9+ wins (Kansas 11-1 and Illinois 9-3), so its beaten opponents earned 362.0 Level 1 points in all (240.0 for Hawai'i's), a Level 2 term of 25.1 to 16.6; Hawai'i beat 7 teams with losing records (Idaho 1-11, UNLV 2-10, Utah State 2-10, New Mexico St 4-9 and 3 more) and FCS N Colorado and FCS Charleston So, which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 8.44 points, more than the whole 6.83-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way. Harbin ranks Missouri #6 and it has 11 wins, so it is eligible (9+ wins, top 14) and the best available at-large pick; the real Sugar Bowl had Hawai'i (Harbin #23) instead. Missouri's wins earn more: 6.05 Level 1 points per win, against 4.79 for Hawai'i. 9 of its 11 wins came over top-tier teams (6.5 each: Illinois #14, Kansas #16, Texas A&M #37, Texas Tech #41 and 5 more); Hawai'i had 1 of 12, plus 9 over other FBS teams (5.0 each: Louisiana Tech, UNLV, Idaho, Utah State and 5 more) and FCS N Colorado and FCS Charleston So (3.0 each). This accounts for 1.20 of the 6.83-point rating gap (18%).
Boston College	#8	#14	Against Kansas (the team it displaces), Boston College beat 2 teams with 9+ wins (Virginia Tech 11-2 and Clemson 9-3), so its beaten opponents earned 364.5 Level 1 points in all (275.5 for Kansas's), a Level 2 term of 25.3 to 19.0; Kansas beat 6 teams with losing records (FIU 1-11, Baylor 3-9, Iowa State 3-9, Kansas St 5-7 and 2 more) and FCS SE Louisiana, which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 6.16 points, more than the whole 3.42-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way. Harbin ranks Boston College #8 and it has 10 wins, so it is eligible (9+ wins, top 14) and the best available at-large pick; the real Orange Bowl had Kansas (Harbin #16) instead. Boston College beat 2 Harbin top-25 teams (Virginia Tech #3 and Clemson #19) and 1 more in the top 50 (Wake Forest #31); Kansas, the team it displaces, has 0 top-25 wins and 2 more in the top 50.
Arizona St	#11	#11	Against Illinois (the team it displaces), Arizona St lost 2 of its 12 games (Oregon 8-4 and USC 10-2), against 3 of 12 for Illinois (lost to Missouri 11-2, Iowa 6-6 and Michigan 8-4), and every loss is a game worth 0 points in the Level 1 average. This accounts for 0.51 of the 0.74-point rating gap (69%). Harbin ranks Arizona St #11 and it has 10 wins, so it is eligible (9+ wins, top 14) and the best available at-large pick; the real Rose Bowl had Illinois (Harbin #14) instead. Arizona St's wins earn more: 6.20 Level 1 points per win, against 5.94 for Illinois. 8 of its 10 wins came over top-tier teams (6.5 each: Oregon St #25, UCLA #32, California #42, Colorado #43 and 4 more); Illinois had 7 of 9, plus 1 over other FBS teams (5.0 each: Ball State) and FCS W Illinois (3.0). This accounts for 0.20 of the 0.74-point rating gap (27%).

Harbin drops

Team	Harbin	BCS standings	Why
Illinois	#14	#13	Against Arizona St (the team that takes its place), Illinois lost 3 of its 12 games (Missouri 11-2, Iowa 6-6 and Michigan 8-4), and every loss is a game worth 0 points in the Level 1 average: 9 of its 12 games earn points, against 10 of 12 for Arizona St (lost to Oregon 8-4 and USC 10-2). This accounts for 0.51 of the 0.74-point rating gap (69%). The real Rose Bowl took Illinois (at-large (replaced Big Ten champion Ohio State)). Harbin ranks Illinois #14 (9 wins), and its at-large berths go to better-ranked eligible teams. Harbin's lineup has Arizona St (#11) there instead. Illinois's wins earn less: 5.94 Level 1 points per win, against 6.20 for Arizona St. 2 of its 9 wins came over teams worth less than a top-tier win (6.5): 1 over other FBS teams (5.0 each: Ball State) and FCS W Illinois (3.0); Arizona St had 2 (2 over other FBS teams (5.0 each: San José St and San Diego St)). This accounts for 0.20 of the 0.74-point rating gap (27%).
Kansas	#16	#8	Against Boston College (the team that takes its place), Kansas's beaten opponents earned 275.5 Level 1 points in all (364.5 for Boston College's), a Level 2 term of 19.0 to 25.3. Kansas beat 6 teams with losing records (FIU 1-11, Baylor 3-9, Iowa State 3-9, Kansas St 5-7 and 2 more) and FCS SE Louisiana, which add little to Level 2; Boston College beat 2 teams with 9+ wins (Virginia Tech 11-2 and Clemson 9-3). This accounts for 6.16 points, more than the whole 3.42-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way. The real Orange Bowl took Kansas (at-large (#8)). Harbin ranks Kansas #16, outside the top 14 that at-large picks come from. Harbin's lineup has Boston College (#8) there instead.
Hawai'i	#23	#10	Against Missouri (the team that takes its place), Hawai'i's beaten opponents earned 240.0 Level 1 points in all (362.0 for Missouri's), a Level 2 term of 16.6 to 25.1. Hawai'i beat 7 teams with losing records (Idaho 1-11, UNLV 2-10, Utah State 2-10, New Mexico St 4-9 and 3 more) and FCS N Colorado and FCS Charleston So, which add little to Level 2; Missouri beat 2 teams with 9+ wins (Kansas 11-1 and Illinois 9-3). This accounts for 8.44 points, more than the whole 6.83-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way. The real Sugar Bowl took Hawai'i (non-AQ automatic (#10 WAC champion, top 12)). Harbin ranks Hawai'i #23, outside the top 14 that at-large picks come from. Harbin's lineup has Missouri (#6) there instead. Hawai'i's wins earn less: 4.79 Level 1 points per win, against 6.05 for Missouri. 11 of its 12 wins came over teams worth less than a top-tier win (6.5): 9 over other FBS teams (5.0 each: Louisiana Tech, UNLV, Idaho, Utah State and 5 more) and FCS N Colorado and FCS Charleston So (3.0 each); Missouri had 2 (1 over other FBS teams (5.0 each: W Michigan) and FCS Illinois St (3.0)). This accounts for 1.20 of the 6.83-point rating gap (18%).

Biggest disagreements

Team	Harbin	BCS standings	W-L	Why
Oregon	#10	-	8-4	Against Kentucky (Harbin #26, the first spot outside the BCS standings's top 25), Oregon beat 2 teams with 9+ wins (Arizona St 10-2 and USC 10-2), so its beaten opponents earned 332.0 Level 1 points in all (249.0 for Kentucky's), a Level 2 term of 22.9 to 17.2; Kentucky beat 2 teams with losing records (Kent State 3-9 and Vanderbilt 5-7) and FCS E Kentucky, which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 5.72 of the 6.56-point rating gap (87%). Oregon beat 3 Harbin top-25 teams (USC #9, Arizona St #11 and Michigan #22). Oregon's loss to 5-7 Arizona counts no more in Harbin than a loss to a top-10 team; it is unranked in the BCS standings.
Hawai'i	#23	#10	12-0	Against Oregon (Harbin #10, the spot the BCS standings gives Hawai'i), Hawai'i's beaten opponents earned 240.0 Level 1 points in all (332.0 for Oregon's), a Level 2 term of 16.6 to 22.9. Hawai'i beat 7 teams with losing records (Idaho 1-11, UNLV 2-10, Utah State 2-10, New Mexico St 4-9 and 3 more) and FCS N Colorado and FCS Charleston So, which add little to Level 2; Oregon beat 2 teams with 9+ wins (Arizona St 10-2 and USC 10-2). This accounts for 6.34 points, more than the whole 5.64-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way. Hawai'i's wins earn less: 4.79 Level 1 points per win, against 6.13 for Oregon. 11 of its 12 wins came over teams worth less than a top-tier win (6.5): 9 over other FBS teams (5.0 each: Louisiana Tech, UNLV, Idaho, Utah State and 5 more) and FCS N Colorado and FCS Charleston So (3.0 each); Oregon had 2 (2 over other FBS teams (5.0 each: Houston and Fresno St)). This accounts for 1.11 of the 5.64-point rating gap (20%). Hawai'i has no win over a Harbin top-25 team (best win: Boise St #33).
South Florida	#12	#21	9-3	Against Texas (Harbin #21, the spot the BCS standings gives South Florida), South Florida beat 2 teams with 9+ wins (UCF 10-3 and West Virginia 10-2), so its beaten opponents earned 310.5 Level 1 points in all (269.5 for Texas's), a Level 2 term of 21.6 to 18.5; Texas beat 5 teams with losing records (Baylor 3-9, Iowa State 3-9, Rice 3-9, Arkansas St 5-7 and 1 more), which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 2.83 of the 3.06-point rating gap (92%). South Florida beat 1 Harbin top-25 team (West Virginia #5) and 2 more in the top 50 (UCF #29 and Auburn #30).
Boise St	#33	#24	10-2	Against Wisconsin (Harbin #24, the spot the BCS standings gives Boise St), Boise St's beaten opponents earned 215.5 Level 1 points in all (242.0 for Wisconsin's), a Level 2 term of 14.9 to 16.9. Boise St beat 6 teams with losing records (Idaho 1-11, Utah State 2-10, New Mexico St 4-9, Louisiana Tech 5-7 and 2 more) and FCS Weber St, which add little to Level 2; Wisconsin beat no team with 9+ wins. This accounts for 1.84 of the 2.39-point rating gap (77%). Boise St's wins earn less: 4.80 Level 1 points per win, against 5.78 for Wisconsin. 10 of its 10 wins came over teams worth less than a top-tier win (6.5): 9 over other FBS teams (5.0 each: Wyoming, Southern Miss, New Mexico St, Nevada and 5 more) and FCS Weber St (3.0); Wisconsin had 3 (2 over other FBS teams (5.0 each: UNLV and N Illinois) and FCS The Citadel (3.0)). This accounts for 0.77 of the 2.39-point rating gap (32%). Boise St has no win over a Harbin top-25 team (best win: Fresno St #66).
Kansas	#16	#8	11-1	Against Boston College (Harbin #8, the spot the BCS standings gives Kansas), Kansas's beaten opponents earned 275.5 Level 1 points in all (364.5 for Boston College's), a Level 2 term of 19.0 to 25.3. Kansas beat 6 teams with losing records (FIU 1-11, Baylor 3-9, Iowa State 3-9, Kansas St 5-7 and 2 more) and FCS SE Louisiana, which add little to Level 2; Boston College beat 2 teams with 9+ wins (Virginia Tech 11-2 and Clemson 9-3). This accounts for 6.16 points, more than the whole 3.42-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
Auburn	#30	#23	8-4	Against Hawai'i (Harbin #23, the spot the BCS standings gives Auburn), Auburn lost 4 of its 12 games (South Florida 9-3, Mississippi St 7-5, LSU 11-2 and Georgia 10-2), and every loss is a game worth 0 points in the Level 1 average: 8 of its 12 games earn points, against 12 of 12 for Hawai'i (unbeaten). This accounts for 1.78 of the 2.01-point rating gap (88%). Auburn's beaten opponents earned 223.5 Level 1 points in all (240.0 for Hawai'i's), a Level 2 term of 15.4 to 16.6. Auburn beat 4 teams with losing records (Ole Miss 3-9, New Mexico St 4-9, Kansas St 5-7 and Vanderbilt 5-7) and FCS Tennessee Tech, which add little to Level 2; Hawai'i beat 1 team with 9+ wins (Boise St 10-2). This accounts for 1.14 of the 2.01-point rating gap (57%).
Boston College	#8	#14	10-3	Against Illinois (Harbin #14, the spot the BCS standings gives Boston College), Boston College beat 2 teams with 9+ wins (Virginia Tech 11-2 and Clemson 9-3), so its beaten opponents earned 364.5 Level 1 points in all (302.5 for Illinois's), a Level 2 term of 25.3 to 21.0; Illinois beat 2 teams with losing records (Minnesota 1-11 and Syracuse 2-10) and FCS W Illinois, which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 4.31 points, more than the whole 2.25-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way. Boston College lost 2 of its 12 games (Florida St 7-5 and Maryland 6-6), against 3 of 12 for Illinois (lost to Missouri 11-2, Iowa 6-6 and Michigan 8-4), and every loss is a game worth 0 points in the Level 1 average. This accounts for 0.49 of the 2.25-point rating gap (22%). Boston College beat 2 Harbin top-25 teams (Virginia Tech #3 and Clemson #19) and 1 more in the top 50 (Wake Forest #31).
Wisconsin	#24	#18	9-3	Against BYU (Harbin #18, the spot the BCS standings gives Wisconsin), Wisconsin's beaten opponents earned 242.0 Level 1 points in all (284.0 for BYU's), a Level 2 term of 16.9 to 19.7. Wisconsin beat 4 teams with losing records (Minnesota 1-11, N Illinois 2-10, UNLV 2-10 and Washington St 5-7) and FCS The Citadel, which add little to Level 2; BYU beat 1 team with 9+ wins (Air Force 9-3). This accounts for 2.93 points, more than the whole 2.59-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way. Wisconsin lost 3 of its 12 games (Illinois 9-3, Penn State 8-4 and Ohio State 11-1), and every loss is a game worth 0 points in the Level 1 average: 9 of its 12 games earn points, against 10 of 12 for BYU (lost to UCLA 6-6 and Tulsa 9-4). This accounts for 0.45 of the 2.59-point rating gap (17%).

Checks

Harbin ranks these teams in its top 15, yet the reference left them unranked, and they are not on the ineligible list. Each may be missing a postseason ban.

Team	Harbin	W-L	Note
Oregon	#10	8-4	Harbin #10 but unranked by the BCS standings: check for a postseason ban or other ineligibility

Compared with BCS standings of 2007-12-04. Written 2026-10-17 from games through 2007-12-04.