2018 season

4-team CFP era

Latest update: 2026-10-18 5:01 am ET  |  Week 15 status: COMPLETE

2018 Harbin Rankings

Power 4 conferences

Other FBS conferences

Independents

2018 season summary

Harbin's top four matches the real one exactly.

Among games between teams the committee ranked, Harbin put the loser above the winner in 10 of 42 (the committee: 9), and picked 6 of 11 postseason games (the committee: 4), ahead of the committee overall.

It flags 1 team that looks out of place: App State (odd-in).

MeasureHarbinCFP committee (2018-12-02)
Results contradicted (fewer is better)10 of 42 (24%)9 of 42 (21%)
Postseason picks right6 of 11 (55%)4 of 11 (36%)
Playoff field matched4 of 4 (100%)n/a

Outliers

TeamKindHarbinCFP committeeAPFPIW-LWhy
App StateHarbin has in, reference does not#24--#4810-2
  • Against Iowa State (Harbin #26, the first spot outside the committee's top 25), App State lost 2 of its 12 games (Penn State 9-3 and GA Southern 9-3), against 4 of 12 for Iowa State (lost to Iowa 8-4, Oklahoma 12-1, TCU 6-6 and Texas 9-4), and every loss is a game worth 0 points in the Level 1 average. This accounts for 0.89 points, more than the whole 0.60-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
  • App State beat 1 team with 9+ wins (Troy 9-3), so its beaten opponents earned 236.0 Level 1 points in all (227.0 for Iowa State's), a Level 2 term of 16.3 to 15.8; Iowa State beat 4 teams with losing records (Kansas 3-9, Akron 4-8, Kansas St 5-7 and Texas Tech 5-7) and FCS Drake, which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 0.62 points, more than the whole 0.60-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.

Biggest disagreements

TeamHarbinCFP committeeW-LWhy
Mississippi St#33#188-4
  • Against Fresno St (Harbin #18, the spot the committee gives Mississippi St), Mississippi St's beaten opponents earned 218.0 Level 1 points in all (284.0 for Fresno St's), a Level 2 term of 15.1 to 18.0. Mississippi St beat 3 teams with losing records (Arkansas 2-10, Kansas St 5-7 and Ole Miss 5-7) and FCS SF Austin, which add little to Level 2; Fresno St beat 1 team with 9+ wins (Boise St 10-3). This accounts for 4.38 points, more than the whole 3.24-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
  • Mississippi St lost 4 of its 12 games (Kentucky 9-3, Florida 9-3, LSU 9-3 and Alabama 13-0), and every loss is a game worth 0 points in the Level 1 average: 8 of its 12 games earn points, against 11 of 13 for Fresno St (lost to Minnesota 6-6 and Boise St 10-3). This accounts for 0.96 of the 3.24-point rating gap (30%).
Syracuse#31#209-3
  • Against Texas A&M (Harbin #20, the spot the committee gives Syracuse), Syracuse's beaten opponents earned 213.5 Level 1 points in all (268.0 for Texas A&M's), a Level 2 term of 14.8 to 18.4. Syracuse beat 4 teams with losing records (UConn 1-11, Louisville 2-10, North Carolina 2-9 and Florida St 5-7) and FCS Wagner, which add little to Level 2; Texas A&M beat 3 teams with 9+ wins (UAB 10-3, Kentucky 9-3 and LSU 9-3). This accounts for 3.76 points, more than the whole 2.99-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
Boise St#16#2510-3
  • Against Northwestern (Harbin #25, the spot the committee gives Boise St), Boise St beat 3 teams with 9+ wins (Fresno St 11-2, Utah State 10-2 and Troy 9-3), so its beaten opponents earned 296.0 Level 1 points in all (254.0 for Northwestern's), a Level 2 term of 20.4 to 17.6; Northwestern beat 3 teams with losing records (Rutgers 1-11, Illinois 4-8 and Nebraska 4-8), which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 2.91 points, more than the whole 2.40-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
  • Boise St lost 2 of its 12 games (Oklahoma St 6-6 and San Diego St 7-5), against 4 of 12 for Northwestern (lost to Duke 7-5, Akron 4-8, Michigan 10-2 and Notre Dame 12-0), and every loss is a game worth 0 points in the Level 1 average. This accounts for 0.96 of the 2.40-point rating gap (40%).
  • Boise St beat 1 Harbin top-25 team (Fresno St #18) and 2 more in the top 50 (Troy #38 and Utah State #44).
Florida#17#109-3
  • Against Washington St (Harbin #10, the spot the committee gives Florida), Florida's beaten opponents earned 263.0 Level 1 points in all (309.5 for Washington St's), a Level 2 term of 18.4 to 21.3. Florida beat 3 teams with losing records (Colorado St 3-9, Florida St 5-7 and Tennessee 5-7) and FCS Charleston So and FCS Idaho, which add little to Level 2; Washington St beat 1 team with 9+ wins (Utah 9-4). This accounts for 3.23 of the 3.66-point rating gap (88%).
Missouri#29#238-4
  • Against Army (Harbin #23, the spot the committee gives Missouri), Missouri's beaten opponents earned 227.5 Level 1 points in all (242.0 for Army's), a Level 2 term of 15.6 to 16.7. Missouri beat 2 teams with losing records (Arkansas 2-10 and Tennessee 5-7) and FCS UT Martin, which add little to Level 2; Army beat 1 team with 9+ wins (Buffalo 10-3). This accounts for 1.00 of the 1.04-point rating gap (96%).
  • Missouri lost 4 of its 12 games (Georgia 11-2, South Carolina 7-5, Alabama 13-0 and Kentucky 9-3), and every loss is a game worth 0 points in the Level 1 average: 8 of its 12 games earn points, against 9 of 11 for Army (lost to Duke 7-5 and Oklahoma 12-1). This accounts for 0.78 of the 1.04-point rating gap (74%).

Compared with CFP committee of 2018-12-02. Written 2026-10-17 from games through 2018-12-02.