2005 season summary
Harbin's top two are USC and Texas; the title game was Texas vs USC, so Harbin got 2 of 2 right; across the whole BCS lineup (title game and four bowls), run by that year's rules, Harbin matches 7 of 8 teams.
Among games between teams the BCS standings ranked, Harbin put the loser above the winner in 12 of 39 (the BCS standings: 10), and picked 6 of 10 postseason games (the BCS standings: 5), behind the BCS standings overall.
It flags no team that looks out of place.
| Measure | Harbin | BCS standings (2005-12-04) |
|---|
| Results contradicted (fewer is better) | 12 of 39 (31%) | 10 of 39 (26%) |
| Postseason picks right | 6 of 10 (60%) | 5 of 10 (50%) |
| Playoff field matched | 7 of 8 (88%) | n/a |
Field changes
Title game: Harbin USC vs Texas; real USC vs Texas.
Teams Harbin would add to, or drop from, the real field (the title game and the four BCS bowls).
Harbin adds
| Team | Harbin | BCS standings | Why |
|---|
| Virginia Tech | #4 | #10 | - Against Notre Dame (the team it displaces), Virginia Tech beat 2 teams with 8+ wins (West Virginia 10-1 and Boston College 8-3), so its beaten opponents earned 324.5 Level 1 points in all (244.0 for Notre Dame's), a Level 2 term of 26.8 to 20.0; Notre Dame beat 6 teams with losing records (Syracuse 1-10, Washington 2-9, Pitt 5-6, Purdue 5-6 and 2 more), which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 6.63 points, more than the whole 4.52-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
- Harbin ranks Virginia Tech #4 and it is an ACC non-champion with 10 wins, so the 3-4 rule gives it an automatic berth (the best at-large team at #3, else #4); the real Fiesta Bowl had Notre Dame (Harbin #14) instead.
- Virginia Tech beat 3 Harbin top-25 teams (West Virginia #6, Georgia Tech #18 and Boston College #20) and 2 more in the top 50 (NC State #32 and North Carolina #46); Notre Dame, the team it displaces, has 1 top-25 win and 0 more in the top 50.
|
Harbin drops
| Team | Harbin | BCS standings | Why |
|---|
| Notre Dame | #14 | #6 | - Against Virginia Tech (the team that takes its place), Notre Dame's beaten opponents earned 244.0 Level 1 points in all (324.5 for Virginia Tech's), a Level 2 term of 20.0 to 26.8. Notre Dame beat 6 teams with losing records (Syracuse 1-10, Washington 2-9, Pitt 5-6, Purdue 5-6 and 2 more), which add little to Level 2; Virginia Tech beat 2 teams with 8+ wins (West Virginia 10-1 and Boston College 8-3). This accounts for 6.63 points, more than the whole 4.52-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
- The real Fiesta Bowl took Notre Dame (automatic as independent ranked #6; replaced Texas as the Fiesta host team). Harbin ranks Notre Dame #14, outside the top 12 that at-large picks come from. Harbin's lineup has Virginia Tech (#4) there instead.
|
Biggest disagreements
| Team | Harbin | BCS standings | W-L | Why |
|---|
| Notre Dame | #14 | #6 | 9-2 | - Against West Virginia (Harbin #6, the spot the BCS standings gives Notre Dame), Notre Dame's beaten opponents earned 244.0 Level 1 points in all (283.5 for West Virginia's), a Level 2 term of 20.0 to 23.2. Notre Dame beat 6 teams with losing records (Syracuse 1-10, Washington 2-9, Pitt 5-6, Purdue 5-6 and 2 more), which add little to Level 2; West Virginia beat 1 team with 8+ wins (Louisville 9-2). This accounts for 3.24 of the 3.65-point rating gap (89%).
- Notre Dame lost 2 of its 11 games (Michigan St 5-6 and USC 12-0), and every loss is a game worth 0 points in the Level 1 average: 9 of its 11 games earn points, against 10 of 11 for West Virginia (lost to Virginia Tech 10-2). This accounts for 0.55 of the 3.65-point rating gap (15%).
|
| Virginia Tech | #4 | #10 | 10-2 | - Against Miami (Harbin #10, the spot the BCS standings gives Virginia Tech), Virginia Tech beat 2 teams with 8+ wins (West Virginia 10-1 and Boston College 8-3), so its beaten opponents earned 324.5 Level 1 points in all (277.0 for Miami's), a Level 2 term of 26.8 to 22.3; Miami beat 4 teams with losing records (Temple 0-11, Duke 1-10, Wake Forest 4-7 and North Carolina 5-6), which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 3.88 points, more than the whole 2.04-point rating gap; other factors pull the other way.
- The teams Miami played had 124 games on their schedules in all, against 121 for Virginia Tech's, and Level 2 is divided by that total, so each team Miami beat adds less. This accounts for 0.60 of the 2.04-point rating gap (29%).
- Virginia Tech lost 1 of its 11 games (Miami 9-2), against 2 of 11 for Miami (lost to Florida St 8-4 and Georgia Tech 7-4), and every loss is a game worth 0 points in the Level 1 average. This accounts for 0.57 of the 2.04-point rating gap (28%).
|
| Georgia Tech | #18 | #24 | 7-4 | - Against Northwestern (Harbin #24, the spot the BCS standings gives Georgia Tech), Georgia Tech beat 2 teams with 8+ wins (Auburn 9-2 and Miami 9-2), so its beaten opponents earned 239.0 Level 1 points in all (221.0 for Northwestern's), a Level 2 term of 19.4 to 18.0; Northwestern beat 4 teams with losing records (Illinois 2-9, Ohio 4-7, Michigan St 5-6 and Purdue 5-6), which add little to Level 2. This accounts for 1.46 of the 1.74-point rating gap (84%).
- Georgia Tech's wins earn more: 6.50 Level 1 points per win, against 6.07 for Northwestern. 7 of its 7 wins came over top-tier teams (6.5 each: Miami #10, Auburn #11, Clemson #31, North Carolina #46 and 3 more); Northwestern had 5 of 7, plus 2 over other FBS teams (5.0 each: Ohio and N Illinois). This accounts for 0.27 of the 1.74-point rating gap (16%).
- Georgia Tech beat 2 Harbin top-25 teams (Miami #10 and Auburn #11) and 2 more in the top 50 (Clemson #31 and North Carolina #46).
|
Compared with BCS standings of 2005-12-04. Written 2026-10-17 from games through 2005-12-04.